Recent press commentary has combined data from polls by CBS and The Annenberg Center on Public Policy to paint a dismaying picture of the effect of the ads by the Bush surrogate group "Swift Boat Vets for Truth", particularly among veterans.

The two most widely quoted statistics are The Annenberg Center for Public Policy's finding that more then half the country knows about the ads, and that, of that group, close to half - 46% - found the ads "very or somewhat believable". This finding, along with CBS data that show Kerry's support among vets precipitously falling from a 46%-46% tie with Bush immediately after the Democratic convention to a 37%-55% deficit on August 15-18, has been combined in several analyses to draw the conclusion that the anti-Kerry ads have been very effective and deeply destructive to the Kerry campaign.

Caution is in order, however, in interpreting these findings. The published report of the Annenberg survey does not present separate results for those who found the ads "very" believable versus those who found them only "somewhat" believable. Given the extensive and extremely right-slanted character of the press coverage (FOX/Murdoch providing sympathetic coverage; the other networks neutrally reporting "The Growing Controversy") a survey response that the charges are "somewhat" believable may represent an cautious "I don't know, but, heck, there may be something" reservation of judgment, and not a firm belief.

This possibility is bolstered by the fact that, when asked if they believed the major accusation against Kerry - that he did not legitimately earn all his medals - only 21% of the Annenberg respondents agreed. The strong majority -- 59% -- supported Kerry on this issue, with an additional 20% withholding judgment. Thus, while the data clearly show that the anti-Kerry ads have become widely known, their actual effectiveness is not yet clear.

The CBS data showing a dramatic decline in Kerry's support among veterans since the convention must also be handled with care. A Rasmussen Reports poll taken shortly after the Democratic convention (Aug 4th) showed Kerry with only 35% support among veterans, compared with 58% for Bush - a result not very different then the CBS data for August 15-18 after the ads had appeared. It therefore remains unclear how much influence the anti-Kerry swift boat ads have actually had.

As the Bush surrogate groups now switch their attack to Kerry's anti-Vietnam war positions in the early 1970's, the issues will shift, but it will become increasingly important to consider the extent to which these attacks simply reinforce the views of voters who were already planning to vote for George W. Bush or if they begin to successfully undermine support for Kerry among voters not yet committed. At this point, it's still too early to tell.