« The Nader Vote |
Main
| The Catholic Vote »
June 28, 2004
The Rural Vote
There have been some signs that the rural vote might be a bit soft for Bush this year, given continuing economic problems and disenchantment with the war in Iraq. Now here is some hard evidence: a just-released poll of likely rural voters in swing states by the Center for Rural Strategies (CRS). The CRS poll finds these voters giving Bush a weak approval rating of just 52 percent, with 44 percent disapproval--a little better than he has fared lately in national polls certainly, as one would expect among rural voters, a group that has been famously sympathetic to Bush, but not terribly impressive. And only 43 percent of these voters think the country is going in the right direction, cmpared to 48 percent who feel it is off on the wrong track.
In terms of vote intention, these voters do tend to favor Bush (51-42), but this 9 point margin is not as wide as one would expect from these voters. For example, voters in this poll who reported voting in 2000 said they favored Bush in that electiion by 18 points (55-37).
There are times when you lose by not winning big. Bush in swing state rural areas in 2004 could be such a time. If his margin in those areas is shaved too much, he will not be able to make up the healthy deficits he is likely to run outside of rural areas in most of these states.
Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 05:43 PM | link
|
