1	God, Guns, and Gays: Testing the Conventional Wisdom About the 2004 Election
2	The Conventional Wisdom Conservative Evangelicals
3	Led by Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell
4	Marched to the Polls
5	To Ban Gay Marriage
6	And Reelect George W. Bush
7	Most Important Issue to Voters Percentage Voting for ______________________ Issue Bush Kerry ___________________________________________ Taxes (5%) 57 43 Education (4%) 26 73 Iraq (15%) 26 73 Terrorism (19%) 86 14 Economy/Jobs (20%) 18 80 Moral Values (22%) 80 18 Health Care (8%) 23 77 Source: 2004 National Exit Poll
8	Issues That Mattered Most
9	The Results The Popular Vote* Bush 60.7 million 50.9% Kerry 57.3 million 48.1 Nader 0.4 million 0.3 Badnarik 0.4 million 0.3 Other 0.3 million 0.3 *Source: uselectionatlas.org. Based on incomplete results. Several hundred thousand additional absentee and provisional ballots have not yet been counted.
10	The Electoral Vote Bush 286 Kerry 252
11	2004 Electoral College Map
12	2004 Electoral College Map with State Size Proportional to Population
13	A Revised Map of the United States
14	Expanding the Democratic Base
15	The Results of the 2004 Presidential Election were Very Similar to the Results of the 2000 Presidential Election Of 30 states that voted for George Bush in 2000, 29 voted for Bush in 2004. Of 20 states plus D.C. that voted for Al Gore in 2000, 18 voted for John Kerry in 2004. States Switching from Bush in 2000 to Kerry in 2004: New Hampshire States Switching from Gore in 2000 to Bush in 2004: Iowa, New Mexico
16	Bush % in 2004 by Bush % in 2000
17	George Bush Increased His Share of the Vote in Blue States, Purple States, and Red States Bush Percentage of Vote in ________________________ 2000 2004 Change _______________________________________________ 14 Democratic States 37.2 40.7 + 3.5 12 Swing States 48.1 49.8 + 1.7 25 Republican States 57.4 60.4 + 3.0
18	Number of Votes Cast for President (in thousands) 2000 2004 % Change ___________________________________________________________ Nation 105,412 120,000* + 13.9* 12 Battleground States 31,220 37,000* + 18.5* 25 Republican States 37,551 44,000* + 17.2* 14 Democratic States 36,647 39,000* + 6.4* 11 Gay Marriage Referendum 19,234 22,500* + 17.0* States *Estimated
19	Change in Bush Margin by Type of State Bush Vote Margin (in 000s) __________________________ 2000 2004 Change _____________________________________________ 14 Democratic States - 5983 - 4750 + 1233 12 Swing States - 157 + 225 + 382 25 Republican States + 5594 + 8030 + 2436 National Total - 546 + 3505 + 4051
20	Gay Marriage Referenda Did Not Increase Voter Turnout
21	Change in Bush Percentage of Vote in States with and without Gay Marriage Referenda Average Bush Percentage of Vote in ________________________________ 2000 2004 Change ________________________________________________________ 11 States with Gay Marriage 55.4 58.0 + 2.6 Referenda on Ballot All Other States 48.1 51.0 + 2.9
22	Same Sex Marriage, Abortion and Voting Behavior in 2004 Policy Toward Same Sex Couples Bush% Kerry% Legally Marry (25%) 22 77 Civil Unions (35%) 52 47 No Legal Recognition (37%) 70 29 Source: 2004 National Exit Poll
23	Believe That Abortion Should Be Legal Bush% Change Always Legal (21%) 25 + 0 Mostly Legal (34%) 38 + 0 Mostly Illegal (26%) 73 + 4 Always Illegal (16%) 77 + 3 Source: 2004 National Exit Poll
24	Change in Bush Percentage of Vote in States with Below Average and Above Average Unemployment Average Bush Percentage of Vote in ________________________________ 2000 2004 Change ________________________________________________________ States with Unemployment 50.5 53.4 + 2.9 Rate below 5 percent States with Unemployment 48.8 51.5 + 2.7 Rate of 5 percent and higher
25	Effects of Unemployment, Turnout Change and Gay Marriage Referenda on Bush Percentage of Vote
26	2004 Bush% by 2000 Bush% in Ohio Counties
27	Regression Analysis of 2004 Bush% in 2004 on 2004 Bush% and 2004 Gay Ban% in Ohio Counties Variable B Std. Error Beta t sig. (Constant) - 8.223 1.930 -4.259 .000 BUSH2000 1.007 .026 .921 38.331 .000 GAYBAN .147 .035 .101 4.203 .000 Rsq = .97
28	Estimating the Impact of Gay Marriage on the Presidential Vote in Ohio For every additional 1% in favor of banning gay marriage in a county, George Bush gained an additional .147% of the vote. Dividing the constant (8.223) by the slope (.147) indicates that in Ohio, Bush gained support in counties in which the gay marriage ban received more than 55.9 percent of the vote and lost support in counties in which the gay marriage ban received less than 55.9 percent of the vote. Since the ban received 61.8 percent of the vote in the state, the net gain for Bush was approximately 0.87% of the statewide vote, or 46,000 votes.
29	The Percentage of Nonwhite Voters in the Electorate Increased Between 2000 and 2004 Percentage of Voters in ________________________ 2000 2004 Change ___________________________________________ White 81 77 - 4 Black 10 11 + 1 Hispanic 7 8 + 1 Asian, Other 3 4 + 1 Source: 2004 National Exit Poll
30	But George Bush Significantly Increased His Support Among Hispanic Voters Between 2000 and 2004 Percentage Voting for Bush in __________________________ 2000 2004 Change _____________________________________________ White 54 58 + 4 Black 9 11 + 2 Hispanic 35 44 + 9 Asian, Other 40 42 + 2 Source: 2004 National Exit Poll
31	Red States and Blue States are as Divided as Ever Average Bush% in __________________________ States won by 2000 2004 Change _______________________________________________________ Bush 56.1 58.6 + 2.5 Gore/Kerry 40.5 43.0 + 2.5 Difference 15.6 15.6 0.0 N of States won by 10% or more 30 31 + 1 N of States won 15 11 - 4 by 5% or less
32	The 2004 Election as a Referendum on George W. Bush Percentage Voting for _____________________ Opinion of Bush Administration Bush Kerry ________________________________________________ Angry (23%) 3 96 Dissatisfied (26%) 16 82 Satisfied (26%) 89 11 Enthusiastic (22%) 98 2 Source: 2004 National Exit Poll
33	"Percentage Voting for" Percentage Voting for View of National Economy Bush Kerry Excellent/Good (47%) 87 13 Not Good/Poor (52%) 20 79
34	"Percentage Voting for" Percentage Voting for ____________________ How Are Things Going in Iraq Bush Kerry ______________________________________________ Very Well (11%) 91 8 Somewhat Well (34%) 90 9 Somewhat Badly (20%) 36 63 Very Badly (33%) 6 93 Source: 2004 National Exit Poll
35	"Yes" Yes No Trust Bush to Handle Economy 49% 51% Trust Kerry to Handle Economy 45% 53% Trust Bush to Handle Terrorism 58% 40% Trust Kerry to Handle Terrorism 40% 58% Source: 2004 National Exit Poll
36	Partisanship in the 2004 Presidential Election Percentage Voting for ______________________ Bush Kerry Nader __________________________________________________ Democrats (37%) 11 89 0 Republicans (37%) 93 6 0 Independents (26%) 48 49 1 Source: 2004 National Exit Poll
37	Continuity in the 2004 Presidential Election Percentage Voting for ______________________ 2000 Vote Bush Kerry Nader ____________________________________________ Did Not Vote (17%) 45 54 1 Gore (37%) 10 90 0 Bush (43%) 91 9 0 Other (3%) 21 71 3 Source: 2004 National Exit Poll
38	The Outlook for the Future The Presidency 2008 Should Present Democrats with a Better Opportunity to win the White House than 2004
39	"Presidential Elections Since World War..." Presidential Elections Since World War II Type of Election ___________________________ Result for Incumbent Party First Term Later Term ____________________________________________ Won 6 2 Lost 1 6 Average Popular Vote + 11.6% - 0.9% Margin
40	Republicans Now Enjoy Significant Structural Advantages in House and Senate Elections A. House Elections Partisan Orientations of House Districts in 2004* ________________________________________________ Solid Republican 102 Favors Republican 69 Leans Republican 68 Leans Democratic 44 Favors Democrat 46 Solid Democratic 106 Republican Districts 239 Democratic Districts 196 ___________________________________________________ *Based on results of 2000 presidential election
41	B. Senate Elections Partisan Orientations of States* and Current Senate Representation ___________________________________________ Partisan Orientation States Dems Reps Solid Republican 11 5 17 Favors Republican 7 1 13 Leans Republican 12 8 16 Leans Democratic 9 10 8 Favors Democrat 8 16 0 Solid Democratic 3 5 1 Republican States 30 14 46 Democratic States 20 31 9 ______________________________________________ *Based on results of 2000 presidential election
42	State Population, Partisanship, and Senate Representation Winner in 2000 _______________ Bush Gore % of Population % of Senate ________________________________________________________ 9 Most Populous 3 6 50 18 20 Least Populous 15 5 10 40