« Whither the DLC? |
Main
| The "Values Voters" Debate Continues »
December 12, 2004
Rating the State Polls
By Alan Abramowitz
Here's a rating of 10 polling organizations that conducted polls in multiple battleground states during the 2004 campaign. The rating is based on the final polls released by each organization in 10 battleground states: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. In order to take into account both the number of states polled and the accuracy of the results, the score of each polling organization is based on the number of states predicted correctly minus the number predicted incorrectly. Predictions of ties do not count. Closeness of predictions to the actual margins also does not count and some polls made correct predictions that were pretty far off the mark.
Here's the list, ranked from best to worst:
1. Rasmussen--10 states polled, 9 correct, 1 tie, +9
2. Mason-Dixon--10 states polled, 9 correct, 1 incorrect, +8
3. SurveyUSA--6 states polled, 5 correct, 1 incorrect, +4
3. Zogby--9 states polled, 6 correct, 2 incorrect, 1 tied, +4
5. Research 2000--5 states polled, 4 correct, 1 incorrect, +3
5. Strategic Vision--7 states polled, 4 correct, 1 incorrect, 2 tied, +3
7. FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics--4 states polled, 2 correct, 2 incorrect, 0
7. Los Angeles Times--2 states polled, 1 correct, 1 incorrect, 1 tied, 0
9. ARG--7 states polled, 3 correct, 4 incorrect, -1
10. Gallup--6 states polled, 2 correct, 4 incorrect, -2
Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 11:23 PM | link
|
