Ron Brownstein had an interesting column, "GOP's Future Sits Precariously on Small Cushion of Victory" in the LA Times last Monday that put Bush's re-election victory in some much-needed historical context. He pointed out:

Measured as a share of the popular vote, Bush beat Kerry by just 2.9 percentage points [actually now down to 2.7 points--RT]: ....That's the smallest margin of victory for a reelected president since 1828.

The only previous incumbent who won a second term nearly so narrowly was Democrat Woodrow Wilson: In 1916, he beat Republican Charles E. Hughes by 3.1 percentage points. Apart from Truman in 1948 (whose winning margin was 4.5 percentage points), every other president elected to a second term since 1832 has at least doubled the margin that Bush had over Kerry.

In that 1916 election, Wilson won only 277 out of 531 electoral college votes. That makes Wilson the only reelected president in the past century who won with fewer electoral college votes than Bush's 286.

Measured another way, Bush won 53% of the 538 electoral college votes available this year. Of all the chief executives reelected since the 12th Amendment separated the vote for president and vice president — a group that stretches back to Thomas Jefferson in 1804 — only Wilson (at 52%) won a smaller share of the available electoral college votes.

But, even more interesting to me, since I've been pondering the comparison between the Bush era and the Reagan era, is the following point he makes about what a re-election victory has usually meant to the incumbent party and what typically has followed that reelection victory:

Throughout American history, the reelection of a president has usually been a high-water mark for the president's party [emphasis added]. In almost every case, the party that won reelection has lost ground in the next presidential election, both in the popular vote and in the electoral college.

The decline has been especially severe in the past half century. Since 1952 there have been six presidential elections immediately following a president's reelection. In those six races, the candidate from the incumbent's party has fallen short of the reelection numbers by an average of 207 electoral college votes and 8.4 percentage points in the popular vote.

Because his margin was so tight, Bush didn't leave the GOP with enough of a cushion to survive even a fraction of that erosion in four years. Even if the GOP in 2008 matches the smallest electoral college fall-off in the past half century — the 99-vote decline between Reagan in 1984 and George H.W. Bush in 1988 — that would still leave the party well short of a majority.

Very interesting stuff indeed. And it suggests that comparing the GOP's previous re-election victory and the current one is an exercise with more than academic implications.

Start with the obvious: Reagan got 58.8 percent of the popular vote in 1984, besting his Democratic opponent by 18.2 percentage points, compared to Bush's 2.7 point victory margin, and carried 98 percent of the electoral vote, compared to Bush's 53 percent. Indeed, if you put the two elections of the Reagan era together, we find Reagan averaging 54.8 percent of the popular vote with a 14 point victory margin and 94 percent of the electoral vote, compared to Bush's average of 49.4 of the popular vote, a 1.1 point victory margin and 52 percent of the electoral vote.

Quite a difference and, as Brownstein emphasizes, essentially no cushion against incumbent party third term slippage.

It's also fascinating to compare that 1984 GOP high water mark to the current one in terms of how the GOP is faring in different types of counties. Take, for example, those 100 fastest-growing counties (since 2000) where Bush did so well in 2004. I've pointed out the less-than-earthshaking nature of this trend elsewhere. But it's interesting to note that in those very same counties in 1984, Reagan did even better: he carried them by 36 points, compared to Bush's 25 point victory this year.

Or, if you prefer, take the 100 fastest-growing counties from the 1990's: Bush carried them by 27 points this year; Reagan carried them by 38 points in 1984.

Another interesting point of comparison is to look at large metropolitan areas. In the exurban or fringe counties of these areas, Bush beat Kerry by 24 points....but Reagan beat Mondale in these same counties by 29 points. So even in this area of particular strength for Bush, he he still lagged somewhat behind Reagan's 1984 performance.

And Bush lagged way, way behind Reagan in the most consequential part of large metro areas, their central counties. Reagan carried these counties by 11 points in 1984, while Bush lost them by an identical margin this year. That's a huge anti-Republican swing of 22 points in a group of counties that are much more consequential than exurbia to GOP electoral fortunes. In the 2004 election, these central counties still cast 43 percent of the overall vote, compared to just 5 percent for the exurban counties.

Yet another way to look at the Bush '04/Reagan '84 comparison is to compare Bush's strength in his best areas--rural and exurban counties combined--with Reagan in the same counties in 1984. That comparison shows that Bush carried these counties by a healthy 21 points (60-39) this year...but Reagan did even better in 1984, carrying them by a 25 point margin (62-37).

Moreover, despite the fact that exurban areas have been growing fairly rapidly, they start from a small enough base that their share of all US voters has increased only modestly over the last twenty years. In fact, once you combine these exurban areas with the rural areas, which have been declining slightly, the share of the US vote cast by the combined group of counties has held rock steady at 25 percent between 1984 and 2004.

In short, when you compare the Bush era to the Reagan era, even Bush's strongest areas don't look so strong and there's less real growth going on in his coalition than generally supposed. If this is a contemporary high water mark for the GOP--and there are good historical reasons for supposing it is--they could be in real trouble.