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November 9, 2004
Where Did Bush's Gains Come From?
In 2000, Bush lost the popular vote by about half a million votes. In 2004, Bush won the popular vote by 3.5 million votes. That's a shift in Bush's direction of 4 million net votes.
Where did this shift in margin--these 4 million votes--come from?
It is possible to answer this question by comparing Bush's margin in individual states in 2000 with his margins in those same states in this election. This analysis shows the following:
1. About half of Bush's gains came from the solid red states--those states that gave Bush a margin of 6 or more points in 2000. And about half of these gains in the solid red states (a quarter of Bush's total gains) came in just four specific states: Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama and Georgia.
2. About a third of Bush's gains came from the solid blue states--those states Gore carried by 6 points or more in 2000. (In these states, Bush gained by reducing his deficits relative to 2000). And about three-quarters of Bush's gains in these solid blue states came from just three states: New York, New Jersey and California.
3. About a fifth of Bush's gains came from the "purple states"--those states that were decided in 2000 by less than 6 points (which includes almost all of the 2004 swing states). And almost all of Bush's gains in this group of states come from just two states: Florida and Tennessee.
Coming soon: analysis of the county-level vote.
Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 06:02 PM | link
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