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October 29, 2004
Tracking the Tracking Polls: The Comparison to 2000
Today the TIPP tracking poll was a tie; at this time before the 2000 election, it was +5 Bush.
Today the Zogby tracking poll was a tie; at this time before the 2000 election, it was +3 Bush.
Today, the WP/ABC tracking poll (LV) was +3 Bush; at this time before the 2000 election, it was also +3 Bush...where it stayed, with a brief detour to +4, until its final poll, thereby missing the actual popular vote margin by 3.5 percentage points.
Today, the Rasmussen poll was +2 Bush; no information available on where it was at this point before the 2000 election (and it wouldn't be strictly comparable anyway, since Rasmussen has substantially changed their methodology since then), but it seems safe to say that Bush's margin was far larger--their final poll, after all, had Bush winning by 9 points.
Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 10:46 PM | link
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