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October 26, 2004
Gallup Vs. Everyone Else
By Alan Abramowitz
It's not just Gallup's recent national polls that appear to be out of line with the results of most other recent polls. Some of their state polls have also produced rather bizarre results. Two notable examples are Gallup's recent polls in the key battleground states of Florida and Wisconsin.
In Florida, Gallup just released a poll showing George Bush leading John Kerry by 9 percentage points among registered voters. Wow! No other poll in the past month has given Bush a lead of more than 3 percentage points in Florida. In fact, of the 12 other Florida polls released in the past two weeks, 6 have John Kerry leading while only 3 have Bush leading, and 3 have the race tied. On average, in these 12 polls, Kerry held a lead of 0.6 percentage points. Quite a difference.
In Wisconsin, Gallup just released a poll showing Bush leading Kerry by 8 percentage points among registered voters. No other poll this month has given Bush a lead of more than 3 percentage points in Wisconsin. Of the 5 other Wisconsin polls released in the past two weeks, 3 have Kerry leading, 1 has Bush leading, and 2 have the race tied. On average, in these 5 polls, Kerry held a lead of 1.5 percentage points.
If this keeps up, when this election is over, the folks over at Gallup are either going to look like idiots or geniuses. I'll leave to you to guess which one is more likely.
Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 02:37 PM | link
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