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October 25, 2004
New Gallup Poll Shows Movement Toward Kerry
The new Gallup poll shows the race moving in Kerry's direction. In their last poll, October 14-16, they showed Bush with a 4 point lead, 50-46 in their 2-way RV matchup. This poll, conducted October 22-24, has Bush's lead shrinking to a single point (49-48).
Even Gallup's bogus LV sample has Bush's lead shrinking from its outlandish 8 points in the previous poll to a merely unbelievable 5 points in the current poll. (Of course, USA Today--shame on them!--leads with and heavily emphasizes the LV results in their story on the new poll.)
Subgroup analysis of the Gallup RV data shows several patterns very favorable to the Kerry campaign:
1. Kerry leads among independents by 5, 49-44.
2. Kerry leads among moderates by 18, 57-35.
3. Kerry leads in the battleground states by 2, 49-47, and Bush's approval rating in these same states has sunk to 46 percent.
On to November 2.
Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 04:54 PM | link
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