The duel of the newsweekly polls continues. The new Time poll implausibly, when compared to other public polls, showed a substantial, sudden move toward Bush among RVs, going from a dead heat last week (46-46) to a 7 point lead this week (50-43).

The new Newsweek poll, on the other hand was a model of stability, going from a 1 point lead for Bush among RVs last week (48-47) to a dead heat this week (47-47). (The poll showed more movement in Kerry's direction among LVs, but that clearly reflected differences between the two polls in who was screened into the LV sample, rather than substantial change in voter sentiment.)

Newsweek, as they did last week, provided a number of interesting subgroup horse race numbers for their 3-way RV matchup that are worth taking a look at:

1. Independents favor Kerry/Edwards by 14 points, 52-38.

2. Swing voters favor Kerry/Edwards by 8, 41-33.

3. First-time voters favor Kerry/Edwards by 3, 47-44.

4. Early voters favor Kerry/Edwards by 6, 50-44.

5. Young voters (18-29) favor Kerry/Edwards by 14, 54-40, and seniors (65+) favor Kerry/Edwards by 5, 48-43.

6. Men favor Bush-Cheney by 51-43 and women favor K/E by 49-42.

Note that this last finding reverses the rather strange reverse gender gap pattern in Newsweek's last poll, wher men favored K/E and women favored B/C.

Two other findings from the Newsweek poll illustrate the difficult challenge Bush faces in making the case for his re-election on two central issues. First, when asked whether "Bush's economic and tax policies" have done more to help or hurt economic conditions in the country, just 33 percent say these policies have helped the economy, compared to 62 percent who say they've either hurt the economy (43 percent) or made no difference (19 percent). Second, when asked whether the war with Iraq has made Americans safer from terrorism or not, 53 percent say no and only 42 percent say yes.

Iraq and the economy: for Bush, difficult issues to defend but even more difficult to avoid.