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October 22, 2004
The Nader Non-Factor
The Washington Post had a good front-page article today, "A Fading 'Nader Factor'?". The article points out, as I have repeatedly, that Nader's vote is likely to be a lot smaller than last time and, hence, less dangerous to the Democrats.
But the article also provides empirical backing for the idea that the Nader will not only be smaller, but also less likely to hurt the Democratic candidate than last time. Here's an excerpt from the article:
A survey conducted this month for the Democratic National Committee by pollster Stanley Greenberg showed Nader averaging 1.5 percent of the vote in a dozen battleground states where his name appears on the ballot, compared with about 3 percent in the summer. It also showed that most of the support Nader lost had shifted to Kerry and indicated that his remaining backers would be as likely to vote for Bush as for the Massachusetts Democrat, if Nader were not running.
And it's not just Greenberg who says this:
Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll, said his research has shown for months that when Nader is removed from poll questionnaires, the margin separating the two major candidates is unaltered.
So one less problem to worry about. Let's concentrate on what's really important: mobilization, mobilization, mobilization.
Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 05:23 PM | link
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