Date: October 19, 2004
To: Friends of Democracy Corps
From: Stan Greenberg, James Carville
RE:KERRY SMALL LEAD CREATES BIG OPPORTUNITIES
Report on the State of the Race After the Presidential Debates
The close of the debates has moved John Kerry into a small lead in the latest Democracy Corps polls, 50 to 47 percent, which puts him in a strong position to win on November 2nd. The race is still close and the Democrats still need to win the final battle over mobilization, but they go into this phase with many advantages over the Republicans. Indeed, the race has consolidated after the debates in many ways that make it harder for Bush to catch Kerry in the sprint to the end.
In highlighting Kerry’s lead, we do not do so triumphantly. It is important that progressives and Democrats and independent observers know what is real so that they can act with great effectiveness in the few days we have to impact the outcome.
We are obviously aware of the many newspaper polls, which paint more volatility and deep uncertainty about the trends of the race. If they were right, it would produce a wholly different strategy to win. But the race is not volatile and inscrutable. In fact, the average of the public polls has the race dead even, with both Bush and Kerry at 47 percent. Let us underscore some points that will aid in interpreting the chaos of media polls.
- Bush’s vote is at 47 percent in our two post-debate polls; his job approval rating has dropped to 47 percent and his vote in the public polls is at 47 percent…As the incumbent, it is very difficult for him to get a vote on election day higher than 47 percent, unless he can raise his position before then.
- That is mostly true because “undecided” voters are not really undecided and almost always break against the incumbent, particularly if the incumbent is a polarizing figure, like Bush. The undecided in this election are populist change voters. By 63 to 28 percent, they want to go in a significantly different direction than Bush; they are critical of big corporations; and break two-to-one Democratic at the congressional level.
- Independents have moved steadily to Kerry, as President Bush has waged his conservative, base-oriented campaign. Today, Kerry has taken a 4 point lead (49 to 45 percent) in the Democracy Corps poll, but that is also true in the CBS/New York Times and ABC News polls. For Bush to win, Republicans would have to be more united than Democrats and outnumber Democrats on election day. But the latter is very difficult, since the likely electorate is more Democratic by at least 3 points.
- The Democrats have consolidated behind Kerry in the post-debate period. While Kerry had not consolidated Democrats before the debates, he has done so with a vengeance afterwards. Kerry is getting 91 percent of Democrats, while Bush is getting 92 percent of Republicans. Kerry and Bush voters now express an equal enthusiasm for their nominees and equally strong intention to vote. Part of that consolidation includes substantial gains with African-American, union, and Hispanic voters.
- The Democracy Corps poll includes an increasing number of new registrants, now at 7 percent of the likely voters – up from 2 percent in July and 6 percent in September and early October. These new voters who could play a decisive role in this election support Kerry by 61 to 36 percent.
- Young voters (under 30 years) could play a very big role in this election. They will for sure give John Kerry his biggest margin of any age group, now giving him over 60 percent of the vote.
The Growing Mood for Change
What makes it difficult for George Bush to change the contours of the race is the growing mood for change in the country. This is not an incumbent moment. The number saying the country is headed off on the wrong track jumped to 55 percent in this survey, with only 40 percent saying things are going in the right direction.
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This is a very difficult environment for Bush to campaign for a new mandate, as a large majority of the undecided and the whole electorate want something new, perhaps a “fresh start.”
The Pressures of a Cultural Election
President Bush has waged a full-throated cultural conservative election, attacking Kerry on liberalism and big government and underscoring his pro-life and religious posture. That has produced rising support among self-identified conservatives and with religious voters, particularly Evangelicals. That has made it harder for Kerry and Democrats to break through in rural areas and with many non-college educated women voters.
But they have paid a big price for this choice, which may have limited their opportunities for gains. Conservatives are 42 percent of the electorate, but the majority are moderate and liberal, who have both become increasingly anti-Bush.
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Kerry’s Change Message Defeats Bush’s Dark Message
President Bush has put his entire campaign behind his attack on John Kerry as unfit and too liberal to be president in these times. It is important for people to know that this is not working and is not likely to work in the weeks ahead, if the progressive groups continue to make the case for change and the case for Kerry’s new direction.
While Bush mounted these attacks in the debates and afterwards, worries about Kerry on flip-flopping, taxes, liberalism and defense have actually fallen. He has gained ground on making America safe, being ready to deal with Iraq, and on the economy.
To test the coming onslaught, we tested the Kerry message, as presented in his advertising and speeches. We also confronted that message with two Bush’s messages – one focused on Kerry’s liberalism and the other on his weakness on security. The Kerry message defeats these messages by 50 to 46 percent, slightly larger than the current margin in the race. Kerry is in position to control the future agenda, despite the strong Bush attacks.
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