By Alan Abramowitz

Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania are the big three in the presidential race. John Kerry and George Bush were both in Florida this morning. Kerry will be in Pennsylvania and Ohio later today. Bush will be there shortly. Both campaigns see these three states as the most crucial in the entire nation. Whoever wins two of these three states will probably win the election and right now George Bush is in big trouble in all three.

In seven polls conducted since the first presidential debate, John Kerry held an average lead of 4.0 points over George Bush among likely voters in Pennsylvania. Kerry led Bush in all seven polls.

In five polls conducted since the first presidential debate, John Kerry held an average lead of 1.2 points over George Bush among likely voters in Ohio. Kerry led Bush in four of the five polls. No Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio.

In nine polls conducted since the first presidential debate, George Bush held an average lead of 0.8 points over John Kerry among likely voters in Florida. Kerry led in four polls, Bush led in four, and one was tied. In the four most recent polls, conducted since October 10, Kerry led in two, Bush in one, and one was tied. Kerry led by an average of 0.5 points in these four polls.

Kerry also led Bush by an average of 4.4 points in five polls conducted in the small but important state of New Hampshire--a state that George Bush carried in 2000. Kerry led in four of the five polls with one poll tied.

George Bush is not leading in a single state that Al Gore carried in the 2000 election. And remember, recent history shows that an incumbent president needs a lead of 3-4 points in the final polls in order to win because undecided voters tend to break heavily for the challenger.