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October 12, 2004
Kerry Takes Lead in WP/ABC Tracking Poll
Not in the silly LV data they like to feature, but where it counts: in their RV data. Kerry now leads by 2 points among RVs in the WP/ABC tracking poll, compared to 2 points down 3 days ago and 6 points down a week ago.
Alan Abramowitz adds this note on the WP tracking poll's idiosyncracies:
The latest ABC/Washington Post tracking poll is showing a 3 point lead for George Bush among likely voters but a 2 point lead for John Kerry among registered voters. This means that the ABC/WP poll is projecting that 85.1 percent of registered Bush supporters will vote but only 76.6 percent of registered Kerry supporters will vote--an 8.5 point Republican turnout advantage. Over the past several days, there has been a consistent LV/RV discrepancy of about this magnitude in the poll. However, data from the past three presidential elections shows that the Republican turnout advantage has never been larger than 3 points. In 1992, the highest turnout election of the three, the difference was only 1 point. In a high turnout election, and 2004 will certainly be a very high turnout election, is is simply not plausible that there will be such a large difference between the prefernces of registered and likely voters. During the final week of the 2000 campaign, George Bush held a consistent lead of 3-4 points among likely voters in the ABC/WP tracking poll. I wonder what the poll's results were among all registered voters? I suspect that they were much closer to the actual results of the election and I suspect that that will also be the case this year.
Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 11:44 PM | link
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