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October 10, 2004
A Note on the ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll
Alan Abramowitz points out:
The Washington Post tracking poll seems to be suffering from the same ailment that afflicted the Gallup tracking poll four years ago, albeit on a smaller scale so far. In the past few days we have seen Bush's lead among registered voters shrinking while his lead among likely voters has increased. This means that the likely voters and the unlikely voters are moving in the opposite direction, just as they frequently did in the Gallup tracking poll four years ago. This makes no sense, of course. With the WP tracking poll, as with the Gallup tracking poll, the registered voter results are probably a better indicator of the actual standing of the race.
Well said. It's also worth notiing that, in 2000, the ABC/WP tracking poll missed the final vote pretty badly, having Bush up by 3 points at the very end and 3-4 points up on every night of the final week. Looks like they're poised to repeat their fine 2000 performance.
Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 07:42 PM | link
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