A new and methodologically innovative survey of 1318 likely voters who watched the first debate confirmed that John Kerry won a decisive victory in that encounter. In this sample, much larger and more statistically reliable then the smaller surveys conducted by ABC, CBS and CNN on Thursday night, Kerry was judged the victor by a margin of 45 to 32, confirming the trends found in the earlier polls.

Kerry’s victory resulted in a significant tightening of the overall race. While George W. Bush’s support remained at 50% both before and after the debate, Kerry’s support rose from 46% to 48%, significantly closing the gap between him and the president.

More important, the survey, conducted by Democracy Corps in coordination with Knowledge Networks, found that had Kerry substantially improved his image among voters in four key respects. The following quotes from the study’s summary and analysis indicate the scope of Kerry’s gains:

1. Kerry made major gains on personal favorability. John Kerry’s performance was very well received by the debate watchers, who gave him a 7-point increase in his thermometer score (up 8 points in “warm” responses and down 5 points in “cool” responses).

2. Kerry achieved broad increases on the issues pertinent to the debate. In a debate that covered issues that were considered by many to be Bush’s strongest points, John Kerry realized major gains. Kerry gained 9 points on who will do a better job on homeland security, 8 points on the war on terrorism, and 3 points on Iraq.

3. With the opportunity to be heard unfiltered for the first time since his convention, Kerry broke through on leadership qualities. Polling by Democracy Corps and other outlets has clearly demonstrated that consistent attacks by Bush and his allies have led to significant losses for Kerry on key measures of personal strength and leadership over the last two months. But after seeing Kerry’s
performance in this debate, likely voters gave him increases of 11 points on having good plans for Iraq, 9 points on strong leader, and 9 points on having confidence in him.

4. The critical bloc of Independent voters moved considerably toward John Kerry. Kerry’s most notable achievement of the night was the vote shift among Independents where his vote increased 4 points from 50 to 54 percent while Bush’s vote dropped 3 points from 45 to 42 percent. Kerry’s favorability among independents jumped 12 points, and he addressed many of their concerns, both on security - up 10 points on making America safer and more secure, and 16 points on having good plans for Iraq - and leadership qualities - up 13 points on strong leader, up 10 points in having confidence in him, and a drop of 11 points on flip-flopping.

Taken together these improvement in Kerry’s image and position have dramatically transformed the race, making the two remaining debates potentially decisive encounters.