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September 28, 2004
Even MoveOn.org Is Playing the "How Can Gallup......." Game!
I'm sure many have heard about today's full-page ad, "Gallup-ing to the Right", in The New York Times (page 5!) by MoveOn.org questioning Gallup's methodology and numbers. But if you haven't actually seen the ad, by all means click on the link and take a look. I think it's a striking and effective ad.
The numbers in the ad, which are quite eye-opening, are rock-solid. The ad says Gallup's average LV lead for Bush this month has been 10 points, while the average of all other LV polls has been 4 (they're clearly referring to 3-way LV results--which are by far the most numerous LV results--based on other data in the ad). That's correct. Even taking into account data released since 9/26 (the end-date for the ad's analysis), Gallup this month has averaged a 10 point lead for Bush among LVs in 3-way trial heats, while the other 27 3-way LV trial heats taken this month have averaged a 4 point Bush lead.
Similarly, the ad says polls released since 9/12 (that is, two weeks before the end-date of the ad's analysis), excluding Gallup, have averaged a 3 point lead for Bush in 3-way LV trial heats. Correct again, even adding in polls released since 9/26. In the 17 3-way trial heats released since 9/12 by polling organizations whose names are not "Gallup", Bush is averaging just a 3 point lead.
Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 08:26 PM | link
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