The New Democrat Network (NDN) has two new surveys that each provide a different important insight into the dynamics of the 2004 campaign.

The two surveys are a nationwide poll of likely voters by Penn, Schoen & Berland (PSB) and a survey of Hispanic RVs by Bendixen and Associates that included 800 interviews in Florida and 600 interviews each in the three southwestern states of Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada.

The PSB poll has a number of interesting findings and I urge you to read the poll memo on the NDN site. But the most revealing finding is this: when asked whether Bush, the Republican party, the Democratic party and Kerry, respectively, “has a clear agenda for the future of the nation”, this is what voters had to say:

Bush: 57 percent yes/40 percent no
Republican party: 56 percent yes/39 percent no
Democratic party: 45 percent yes/50 percent no
Kerry: 41 percent yes/52 percent no

I detect a pattern here and it ain’t good for the Democratic campaign. It’s not enough to criticize Bush; voters need to believe Democrats have a clear and positive alternative.

The Bendixen polls of southwestern states show Kerry running even more strongly than he was in NDN's polls of the same states in April. Kerry's lead among southwestern Hispanics is now 63-30, slightly larger than Gore received in these three states in the 2000 election.

The Bendixen data also finds that southwestern Hispanics prefer the Democrats over the Republicans by wide margins on issues like: helping you and your family live a better life (+29); being committed to public education (+27); creating a large number of new jobs (+32); and supporting universal health care (+37).

And Bush and the Republicans are viewed ever more negatively by these voters. In Arizona, the Republican party image is down from 48 percent positive/44 percent negative to an abysmal 32/52 and among all southwestern Hispanics the Republican party image has declined from 42/42 to a net -16 (34/50). Similarly, Bush's job rating among Arizona Hispanics has sunk to 38/58 from 42/53 and among all southwestern Hispanics from 41/53 to 39/58.

Finally, the poll of Florida Hispanics finds Democrats and Kerry making some gains compared to earlier in the year, including among Cuban-Hispanics who typically vote very heavily Republicans. Bendixen's estimtes indicate Democrats could do better this election among Florida Hispanics than they did in 2000, which could be key to delivering the state for Kerry.