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September 10, 2004
More on Those (Un)likely Gallup Voters
Another nugget from Alan Abramowitz:
If you assume that Democrats, Republicans, and independents in their LV sample voted about the same way as Dems, Reps, and indies in their RV sample (see their "dissecting the vote" analysis on the Gallup website), which was 90-7 Kerry for Dems, 49-46 Kerry for indies, and 90-7 Bush for Reps, in order to have the overall result come out 52-45 Bush there would have to be about a TEN point Republican advantage in party id among LVs. (If you assume 30 percent Dems, 40 percent Reps, and 30 percent indies, for example, with those Bush and Kerry percentages, you end up with almost exactly a 52-45 Bush lead.) Now that is ridiculous. Does anyone really believe that Republicans are going to have a 10 point advantage among 2004 voters?
I sure don't and you shouldn't either. In 2000, the Democrats had a 4 point advantage over the Republicans. That advantage, in my view, is likely to remain stable in 2004, though it's certainly possible that it might diminish some (or increase!). But turn into a 10 point GOP advantage? No way. The fact must be faced: Gallup likely voters look pretty darn unlikely and give a distorted picture of political reality.
Perhaps it's time for a re-think on this one over at Gallup headquarters.
Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 12:23 AM | link
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