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September 9, 2004
Maybe September 6 Was a Really Good Day for Bush
OK, horse race fans, when last we picked up the story (September 3-5 Gallup poll), Bush had a one point lead on Kerry among RVs.
Today we have three different polls released covering about the same period with three pretty different horse race results.
1. CBS News, polling September 6-8 among RVs, gives Bush an 8 point lead.
2. ABC News/Washington Post, polling September 6-8 among RVs, gives Bush an estimated 4 point lead. Why do I say "estimated"? Because, now that Nader is becoming an ever-less-viable candidate, the WP poll has decided only to ask the three-way horse race question and not the followup for Nader voters that allows you to construct a 2-way race. Makes a lot of sense, right?
Since, in their last poll, the 2 way race knocked 2 points off Bush's lead, I do the same thing in this poll and estimate that Bush's 6 point lead in the 3 way race translates into a 4 point lead in the 2-way race.
3. Finally, Fox News, polling September 7-8 among LVs (no RV data available), gives Bush a 2 point lead.
Kinda confusing, huh? Why would September 6-8 be a better period for Bush than September 3-5, right after the convention? And could Fox's polling period, which does not include September 6, mean they missed Bush's best day and he was starting to go downhill a bit?
Stay tuned! There'll be more polls coming at us shortly, I'm sure.
Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 07:46 PM | link
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