Pretty darn good, I'd say. Kerry's speech was on the high end of my expectations, as indeed was the convention as a whole.

Let's look at what he did right. As David Kusnet puts it on The New Republic (TNR) website, he gave a "good", but not great, speech that smartly took the fight to the enemy and preemptively pushed back on the ways Bush will try (is trying) to portray him: weak on national security, too liberal on social issues and pessimistic about America. And did an excellent job of doing so.

John Judis, in his article, "Smart Defense", also on the TNR website (incidentally, kudos to TNR for having such extensive and generally very good coverage of the key speeches--which, after all, was pretty much all the real action going on at the convo), ticks off many of the specific defensive moves Kerry made: anti-pacifism (bolster military, willing to use force); anti-cultural elitism ("band of brothers", stem cell research not gay marriage); anti-tax and spend liberalism (middle class tax cut, roll back tax cuts for the rich, spend on popular programs in health and education); anti-flip flopping ("some issues just aren't that simple"); and anti-doom and gloom ("America can do better").

And, critically, he set the stage for some themes that will be key to success this fall. For example, he pointed out, in a number of different ways, how Bush is now a divider not a uniter and emphasized how he would bring Americans together.

He also dwelt very pointedly on how the country had been misled into war by Bush, how Iraq was a war of choice, not necessity and, for the first time, indicated that he could "bring the troops home" from Iraq and Bush could not. This is just the beginning, of course, of what Kerry so urgently needs to do: putting a clear plan for Iraq and bringing the troops home on the table.

But it is an important first step. If he can combine such a clear plan--and it should more be on the level of compelling, intelligible soundbites than detailed mechanics and elaborate schedules--with his solid domestic program and a catchy summary phrase about where he intends to take the country (in the manner of "putting people first"), he will be in good shape to build on whatever advantage he receives from the convention.

And that's the key thing. It's not the bounce from the convention that's important (and certainly not its exact size, which I suspect will be rather modest), but rather the extent to which Kerry has set himself up for a successful fall campaign.

Looked at from that perspective, I think it's been a very good convention indeed for Kerry and the Democrats.