Gallup released a report today on Kerry vs. Bush on the issues. Based on the July 19-21 poll, their data indicates that Kerry has work to do to overcome Bush's lead on international issues, particularly handling the Iraq situation--something I have highlighted repeatedly in my posts--as well as to capitalize on and, ideally, widen his lead on domestic issues.

According to the Gallup poll, Kerry leads (or deficits) on which candidate can best handle specific issues are: health care (+17); the economy (+8); education (+7); taxes (+2); the situation in Iraq (-5); and terrorism (-18). Compared to Gallup's poll one month previously, Kerry's leads on the issues are about 4-5 points smaller in this poll.

The poll also asks about specific candidate qualities and Kerry's leads include: cares about the needs of people like you (+8); shares your values (+3); and is honest and trustworthy (tied).

Kerry's ratings on these issues and candidate qualities are generally pretty close to what we've seen in other public polls recently....with one big exception: the new ABC News/Washington Post (WP) poll, which gives Kerry much more negative ratings than anyone else.

The WP poll was taken right after the Gallup poll, July 22-25, but boy are these results different. Here are Kerry's leads over Bush on who can best handle different issues: health care (+3); education (+1); the economy (-1); taxes (-6); the situation in Iraq (-12); and terrorism (-18). And on candidate qualities, we have: understands the problems of people like you (+4); shares your values (-6); and honest and trustworthy (-6).

Amazing. In the space of a few days, the WP poll has Kerry's leads on most issues, compared to the Gallup poll, shrinking by 7-14 points. Kerry's leading by only 3 points on health care? And suddenly Bush is ahead by a point on the economy? Ahead by 6 points on taxes and values? By 12 points on Iraq?

It's also worth noting that this WP poll, compared to previous WP polls in the last month, shows shifts double the size or more (8-18 points) of those contained in the Gallup poll.

In short, the results of this poll stick out like a sore thumb. Could it be that the WP poll is using registered voters (RVs) and that accounts for the difference? Nope, the WP poll's own data show that using RVs or adults makes essentially no difference to these measures. Note also that several other recent public polls--Quinnipiac and Time--polled RVs at about the same time Gallup was polling adults on these Kerry-Bush comparisons and found results that were virtually identical to Gallup (an 8 point lead for Kerry on the economy and a 17 point lead on health care; a 4 point Kerry deficit on Iraq).

That leaves only the survey dates as a benign explanation. Did the world really change that much from July 19-21 (Gallup's survey dates) to July 22-25 (WP's survey dates)?

I've got my doubts. Big doubts.