A boatload of interesting polls have just been released which, considered together, give us a sense of how the political landscape lies on the eve of the Democratic convention. Based on both the national picture and on the leanings of key constituencies, the Democrats appear to be in excellent shape, even if much work remains to be done in converting the Democrats' many advantages into a large, durable lead for John Kerry.

Start with the new Pew Research Center poll. Perhaps the most striking findings in the poll concern the dramatically improved issue advantages and image of the Democratic party. Here are the Democrats' leads on which party can a better job on a range of issues: dealing with the economy (+27, up from +7 in mid-2003); protecting the environment (+27); improving the educational system (+16, up from -3 in early 2002); dealing with the economy (+12, up from +3 in fall, 2002); making wise decisions about Iraq (+2, up from -9 in fall, 2002); making wise decisions about foreign policy (+2, up from -10 in fall, 2002); reflecting your views on gun control (+2); improving morality in this country (-2, up from -11 in early 2002 and -23 in early 2001!); coming closest to your views on homosexuality (-2); and dealing with the terrorist threat at home (-15).

Of just as much significance are the results on party image. Five of the six image questions were on positive attributes and the Democrats lead on each one of them: is concerned with the disadvantaged (57-23); is concerned with people like me (50-30); can bring about needed changes (46-35); is able to manage the federal government well (40-37, the first lead Democrats have had on this attribute since mid-1992); and governs in an honest and ethical way (37-34). Only on "is concerned with with business and powerful groups" do the Republicans have an advantage--and a wide one (61-22).

In terms of approval ratings, Bush fares poorly in this poll. His overall approval rating is 46 percent approval/46 percent disapproval, slightly down from their June poll. Slightly down as well in the last month is his rating on the economy, now at 42/52, more evidence that Bush's happy talk on job creation and the allegedly robust economy is convincing no one. His rating on Iraq is a nearly identical 42/53, a slight increase in disapproval over last month. And his rating on "the nation's foreign policy" is actually a bit lower at 40/48 (as recently as January of this year, his rating in this area was a comparatively strong 53/36). Only on terrorist threats does his job rating break into net postive territory (54/40) but this rating too is down from last month and way down from the end of last year.

Pew's trial heat question (which includes Nader-Camejo) gives Kerry-Edwards a small 2 point lead (46-44) over Bush-Cheney among RVs. That includes a 12 point lead for Kerry-Edwards among independents and a 6 point lead in the battleground states.

The Pew data also show that voter interest is running high in this election--signficantly above interest levels in 2000 and 1996 and comparable with 1992--suggesting this will be a relatively high turnout election. And their data indicate that voters are now split on who is going to win the 2004 election, whereas before, regardless of who they personally supported, voters believed by wide margins (40 points in January, by 19 points in May and by 15 points in June) that Bush would prevail.

The wind is shifting and the voters know it!

The new Gallup poll gives Kerry-Edwards a slightly larger lead (4 points) over Bush-Cheney among RVs, with or without Nader-Camejo in the mix. Internals of the horse race question show Kerry-Edwards with a whopping 21 point lead among independents. And, just as in Gallup's last poll, Democrats are now supporting their ticket even more strongly (91-8) than the Republicans are supporting theirs (87-8).

Kerry-Edwards also have a wide 23 point lead in the solid blue states (59-36) and continue to lead in the purple, up-for-grabs states, though by smaller margin (48-44) than in Gallup's last poll.

In addition, the Kerry-Edwards ticket continues to enjoy a substantial advantage in favorability ratings over the Bush-Cheney ticket, though slightly diminished from Gallup's last poll. Kerry's favorability rating is 55 percent favorable/37 percent unfavorable (a +18 net rating), while Bush's is 52/46 (+6). Similarly, Edwards' favorability rating is 52/26 (+26), while Cheney's is 47/43 (+4).

Gallup also asked a series of questions about Kerry vs. Bush on the issues and on personal attributes. It's interesting to match them up, where you can, with the Pew results comparing the Democratic and Republicans parties. By and large, Kerry's advantages on issues and attributes tend to run about 4-10 points behind the Democrats' advantage on similar issues and atributes. Clearly there's room for improvement there for Kerry.

And speaking of room for improvement, I hate to be a broken record on this, but results like these from the Gallup poll continue to bother me. At this point, just 45 percent believe Bush has a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq, compared to 54 percent who think he does not--a net -9 on the question. But check out the result of the same question for Kerry: 33 percent think he does have a clear plan, compared to 56 percent who think he does not--a net -23 on the question.

Ouch.

Turning to key groups for the Democrats in the upcoming election, today saw the release of not one, but two, major new polls of Hispanics--one from The Washington Post/Univision/Tomas Rivera Policy Institute and the other from the Pew Hispanic Center. And if you're Matthew Dowd, leading Bush-Cheney campaign strategist, who has famously remarked that "As a realistic goal, we have to get somewhere between ... 38 [percent] to 40 percent of the Hispanic vote" in 2004 for the GOP to be successful, these polls are very bad news indeed.

Start with the horse race results. Both polls give Kerry-Edwards a 30 point lead over Bush-Cheney among Hispanic RVs. This is a wider margin than Al Gore had among Hispanics in 2000, when he carried them by 27 points (62-35).

The Washington Post (WP) poll (which was conducted in the 11 states with the highest concentrations of Hispanics) has Kerry-Edwards over Bush-Cheney by 60-30, even with Nader-Camejo included. The Pew Hispanic Center (PHC) poll, which was conducted nationally, has Kerry-Edwards over Bush-Cheney by a very similar 62-32. Note that the Bush-Cheney figures of 30-32 percent aren't anywhere near the 38-40 percent target set by Dowd. And they're not likely to get much nearer since one would expect Hispanic undecideds to break toward the Democratic challenger, not the Republican incumbent.

These results are actually worse for Bush and the Republicans than earlier polls this year by the Democracy Corps and others, which gave Kerry and the Democrats healthy leads but not quite this good. So Hispanic voters, it would appear, are trending against the Republicans.

Dowd, of course, refuses to accept this evidence, offering as a counter that a few small Hispanic subsamples in conventional national polls have showed Bush's support among Hispanics in the 40 percent range. But this doesn't pass the laugh test. These samples of Hispanic voters are not only ridiculously small (perhaps 50 voters or so), but they also suffer from the well-known problem that standard telephone polls make no special efforts (use of the Spanish language, etc.) to secure Hispanics' participation and hence tend to draw more upscale, conservative samples of Hispanics than the specialized efforts discussed here.

Looking at the views of Hispanics, as captured in these polls, it's not hard to see how Kerry-Edwards could have such a commanding lead at this point. In the WP poll, Bush's overall approval rating among Hispanics is 36 percent, with 54 percent disapproval. On the economy--by far Hispanics' top voting issue--Bush's approval rating is worse, a dismal 32 percent approval/60 percent disapproval. And his rating on Iraq is worse still, 29/62. In addition, his rating on immigration is 27/55 and his rating on education is 40/46. Only on the US campaign against terrorism (54/38) does he have a net positive rating.

But even on this issue, where Bush gets his best approval rating, Hispanics still say they prefer Kerry over Bush by 43-35. And they prefer Kerry over Bush on every other issue as well: the economy (53-28); Iraq (45-34); immigration (46-26); and education (51-27). Kerry is also viewed, by 25 points (55-30), as the candidate who would do a better job coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years.

In addition, Hispanics give Kerry higher ratings than Bush on "understands the problems of people like you" (Kerry, 53 yes/23 no vs. Bush, 37/55); "can be trusted in a crisis" (53/21 vs. 47/44); and "is a likable person" (69/14 vs. 61/34). And even on "is a strong leader", where Kerry and Bush get about the same number of yes votes, Kerry's net rating is quite a bit higher than Bush's (57/22 vs. 58/36).

On Iraq, contrary to early media reports that Hispanics were especially supportive of the war, the reverse is clearly now true. Hispanics believe that the US is losing the war on terrorism (40-37) and that the war hasn't contributed to the long-term security of the United States (48-44), while the general public still has modest pluralities in the other direction. And Hispanics overwhelmingly believe (63-21) that, considering the costs and benefits to the US, the war with Iraq wasn't worth fighting (the general public is only 53-45 that the war wasn't worth fighting).

Finally, Hispanics in the WP poll give the Democrats a 36 point advantage as the party that has more concern for the Latino community (50-14) and a huge 41 point lead on party ID (66-23).

The results of the PHC poll are generally consistent with the WP poll, though they give the Democrats a smaller (26 point) lead on party ID. The horse race results I've already discussed and Bush's overall approval rating is similar to the WP poll (35/55), as is his rating on Iraq (32/58). The PHC poll also finds that Latinos believe the Bush administration deliberately misled the American public about how big a threat Iraq was to the US (51-35) and the US made the wrong decision, not the right decision, in using military force against Iraq (48-39).

On the Bush tax cuts, the PHC poll finds that only 17 percent believe they have been good for the economy. On health care, 86 percent believe the government should provide health insurance for those who don't have it and, by 59-32, they'd be willing to pay more--either in higher health insurance premiums or taxes--to increase the number of Americans who have health insurance. In fact, Latinos say, by 55-37, they'd be willing to pay higher taxes to support a larger government that provides more services, rather than pay lower taxes and have a smaller government with fewer services.

Sorry, Matthew Dowd, these just don't seem like the kind of voters who are eager to drink the GOP Kool-Aid. In fact, maybe you should take that 30 percent support you're getting right now and be happy you're getting that much.

Tomorrow: black voters and young voters