Here's The Hotline's summary of an article by John Harwood and Jacob Schlesinger, based on an interview with Kerry on Iraq, and published in The Wall Street Journal last Friday:

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, John Kerry set a 3-part test for getting the troops out of Iraq if elected, "while warning that" Pres. Bush "might commence a more rapid draw-down this fall to improve his reelection prospects." The 3 parts are "to measure the level of stability"; "to measure the outlook for the stability to hold" and "to measure the ability ... of their security forces" to defend Iraq. He added that "until each condition is satisfied," he will "provide for the world's need not to have a failed state in Iraq." Kerry "isn't preparing to spell out a timetable for rapid withdrawal, suggesting Bush "was more likely to do so." Kerry: "I've heard [it] said by many people" that the WH "might be gearing up to withdraw" troops before 11/2. More: "I'm prepared for any political move."....Kerry "doesn't contemplate 'an open-ended commitment'" of troops but "nor would he pledge to end the U.S. presence in Iraq." Kerry: "At the end of my first term I would consider it a failure of my diplomacy if we haven't reduced the number significantly," but "I certainly can't tell you numbers"

Clear? If it doesn't seem so to you, here's a link to the full article...but, I warn you, it doesn't get much more lucid.

No wonder voters can't figure out what on earth John Kerry actually proposes to do about the Iraq situation. Just-released Annenberg Election Survey data show that, while only 34 percent believe Bush "has a clear plan for bringing the situation in Iraq to a successful conclusion" and 61 percent do not, Kerry fares no better in the public's estimation: just 25 percent believe he has a clear plan and 57 percent do not. In fact, Kerry's net negative on this question (-32) is actually worse than Bush's (-27).

That's a pity because evidence continues to mount that voters--particularly independent and swing voters--have lost faith in Bush on the Iraq issue and are eager to embrace a clear alternative, if Kerry articulated one.

For example, on whether Bush has a clear plan for Iraq, independents are even more lopsided on Bush not having one (65-30) and "persuadable voters"--those who are undecided currently or who say they could change their mind--are amazingly negative (74-18).

Gallup has also recently released a report showing that the transfer of power in Iraq has had absolutely no effect on public perceptions. The public continues to believe that the war is a mistake, hasn't been worth it and is going badly. So they're naturally looking for way out.

Finally, CBS News data show that independents are tremendously negative about Bush's handling of Iraq and foreign affairs and about the Iraq war in general. They give Bush an abysmal 34 percent approval rating on foreign policy, with 59 percent disapproval, and, on Iraq, give him an incredibly negative 32/63 rating--almost 2:1 disapproval! Independents in this poll also say, by 55-42, that we should stayed out of Iraq in the first place and, by a stunning 68-26, that the result of the Iraq war hasn't been worth the associated loss of life and other costs.

Does this sound like a group of voters who will be satisfied with a lot of studied vagueness about how the US will get of Iraq? I don't think so. But if they do get what they're looking for--"a clear plan for bringing the situation in Iraq to a successful conclusion", to use Annenberg's locution--John Kerry can have them eating out of his hand.

So what is he waiting for? He should remember what happened in 2002, when voters hated what was going on with the economy, but the Democrats never offered a clear alternative. The Democrats, as a result, never really benefitted from the terrible economy in that election and that contributed (among other things) to their dismal performance that November.

Kerry, of course, is in a much better situation generally in 2004 than the Democrats were in 2002, but he can't afford to be complacent. He shouldn't assume that the negative situation in Iraq will automatically redound to his benefit. If he does, he could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.