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July 18, 2004
Can There Be Such a Thing as Too Much Bad News for President Bush?
I didn't think so. So, rather than feeling guilty for piling on, let's take a peek at the new CBS News/New York Times survey. Here are the key findings.
1. Bush's favorable/unfavorable rating is net negative for their fifth survey in a row (going back to the beginning of April).
2. Kerry-Edwards beats Bush-Cheney by 5 points (49-44), including an 8 point lead among independent voters. Note that this 49-44 lead is the identical result that CBS News obtained in their overnight poll after Kerry selected Edwards as his running mate, suggesting that the Edwards bounce has some staying power.
3. Bush's overall approval rating is net negative (45 percent approval/48 percent disapproval) for their fourth survey in a row, going back to late April. His 45 percent rating, while a slight improvement over his late May and late June ratings, keeps him well into the danger zone for incumbents.
4. Right direction/wrong track is at 36/56, essentially unchanged since their last survey about three weeks ago.
5. His approval rating on foreign policy is his worst ever at 39/55, as is his rating on handling the campaign against terrorism (51/43). (Note: this latter trend contradicts a recent Post finding suggesting an improvement in Bush's rating in this area.) His approval rating on the economy is still going nowhere fast and, at 42/51, has still failed to reach the exalted heights of mid-February, when his economic rating reached 44/50. And his approval rating on Iraq is 37/58, practically a carbon copy of his dismal ratings in their late June and late May polls.
6. The Democrats have a 9 point advantage in the generic congressional contest, consistent with the Democracy Corps poll I covered on Friday.
7. John Edwards has a net +22 in his favorability rating, while Dick Cheney is now at -9, his worst rating ever.
8. For the first time, a majority (51 percent) says we should have stayed out Iraq, rather than we did the right thing by taking military action (45 percent). And the highest number ever (62 percent) says the result of the war with Iraq wasn't worth the loss of life and other costs of attacking Iraq.
9. With all the brouhaha in the Senate about the gay marriage constitutional amendment, the number who think gays should be allowed to either marry or form civil unions continues to climb--from 55 percent in March, to 57 percent in May to 59 percent in this latest survey.
10. The highest number ever (60 percent) think the US should not attack another country unless the US is attacked first.
11. The Democrats have an 8 point advantage in party ID without leaners and a 14 point advantage with leaners. Shades of the much-maligned Los Angeles Times poll. This party ID advantage, if it holds, gives the Democrats a built-in advantage on election day, which the Republicans then have to try to desperately counter by maximizing turnout of their base.
For the likelihood that this strategy will work, see my July 15 post.
Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 01:21 AM | link
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