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July 9, 2004
Young Voters Moving Democratic (Even Before Edwards!)
It seems plausible that adding Edwards will enhance the Democratic ticket's appeal to young voters. And that's on top of Kerry's already-strong performance among these voters--a trend I have repeatedly flagged in DR. Here are some more findings underscoring that trend, this time from the Newsweek GenNext poll, on how well the Democrats are poised to do with young voters, gathered before Edwards was added to the ticket.
1. Young voters give Democrats a 10 point edge on party ID (50-40).
2. Young voters give Bush a 43 percent approval rating, with 55 percent disapproval, his worst rating yet among young voters in this poll. And all his other approval ratings among young voters are net negative as well and mostly worse than his overall approval rating: the economy (43/56); domestic issues like health care, education, the environment and energy (40/56); foreign policy issues and the war on terrorism (47/52); and the situation in Iraq (39/60).
3. The Democrats have a 10 point lead in the generic Congressional contest (50-40).
4. Kerry has a 9 point lead over Bush in the presidential trial heat (49-40), even with Nader drawing 7 percent support. And note that Nader's support appears to be falling among young voters--every one of these surveys since March, when Nader peaked at 12 percent, has recorded a drop in Nader's support.
Really, the only problem for the Democrats here is if young voters have exceptionally low turnout in November. But the opposite appears likely to happen, according to a just-released analysis by the Pew Research Center.
That's good for democracy--and very good for the Democrats.
Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 08:10 PM | link
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