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July 7, 2004

Edwards Polling Roundup

A number of polls were released today indicating a positive reaction to Kerry's selection of Edwards as his running mate and suggesting an immediate boost to the Democratic ticket. CBS News, for example, found the Kerry-Edwards ticket besting Bush-Cheney by 5 points (49-44) among RVs, while Kerry alone was leading Bush by only a point (45-44) 10 days ago.

That poll also finds Cheney with a heavily net negative (-20) favorability rating--only 27 percent favorable, compared to 47 percent unfavorable. Edwards is not rated by many respondents but those who do view him favorably by an even larger margin (38 percent favorable/9 percent unfavorable, for a +29 net rating) than Cheney is viewed unfavorably.

Even more impressive, in NBC News' overnight poll, Kerry-Edwards leads Bush-Cheney by 11 points (54-43). Moreover, 24 percent day Edwards' selection makes them more likely to vote for Kerry, compared to just 7 percent who say that selection makes them less likely.

Could Edwards be president? The public thinks so, even if Bush ("Cheney can be president, next") does not. By 45 percent to 38 percent, voters pick Edwards over Cheney as the one who do the better job running the country. And, by 49 percent to 28 percent, voters pick Edwards over Cheney as one who is more optimistic about the future of the country.

The poll also finds Bush's approval ratings still languishing at 45 percent approval/48 percent disapproval. But at least he's doing better than Cheney who only receives a 44 percent approval rating.

Gallup's polling doesn't include a horse race question, but has some very interesting data anyway, particularly comparisons with earlier years. For example, 28 percent of voters rate Kerry's choice of Edwards as "excellent" and 36 percent as "very good", for a 64 percent positive rating. By contrast, Bush's selection of Cheney was rated positively by 55 percent (including just 10 percent excellent) and Gore's selection of Lieberman was rated positively by 53 percent (including 18 percent excellent).

In addition, 22 percent of voters (40 percent of Democrats) say they are "enthusiastic" about Kerry's choice of Edwards and 48 percent of voters (also 48 percent of Democrats) are "satisfied".

In an identical finding to the NBC News survey, 24 percent say they are more likely to vote for Kerry because of Edwards' selection, compared to 7 percent who say they are less likely. That's a more positive effect than either the Lieberman or Cheney selection elicited in 2000 (though not as good as the Kemp selection in 1996 or the Gore selection in 1992--a pattern that runs through much of the other data).

Edwards also is rated qualified to serve as president by as many voters as rated Cheney qualified in 2000 (57 percent) and by more than rated Lieberman qualified (52 percent).

Similarly, Kerry's choice of Edwards is rated favorably by as many voters as rated Bush's selection of Cheney favorably (64 percent) and by more voters than rated Gore's selection of Lieberman favorably (57 percent).

Finally, are voters going to look askance at Edwards because he's a trial lawyer? On the contrary, according to the Gallup data people overwhelmingly (67 percent) see Edwards' trial lawyer experience as a strength (major/26 percent; minor/41 percent), rather than a weakness.

So score that opening round for Kerry-Edwards.

Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 10:52 PM | link

 



EDM Newsletter


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What Does the Public Want on Immigration? (Apr 5) By Ruy Teixeira


Exurbia: The Democrats' Next Frontier (Mar 31) By Ruy Teixeira


2006 Election Outlook: The Macro and the Micro (Mar 30) By Ruy Teixeira


2006 Campaign Watch (Mar 24) By Ruy Teixeira


The Iraq War, Three Years On (Mar 22) By Ruy Teixeira


Will the Real Swingers Please Stand Up? (Mar 22) By Alan Abramowitz


Did the Bin Laden Tape Tip the Election to Bush? (Mar 21) By David Gopoian


The UN: Good Idea, Bad Execution (Mar 16) By Ruy Teixeira


Strong Disapproval Matters (Mar 10) By Alan Abramowitz


The Great Bail-Out (Mar 8) By Ruy Teixeira


Unmarried America: Demographics and Attitudes (Mar 1) By Ruy Teixeira


Weekly analysis of latest public opinion polls by Ruy Teixeira.


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