It's been a busy day but I couldn't let it go by without a few comments on the new CBS News/New York Times poll. It would be easy to miss, or not understand fully, how negative this new poll is, coming as it does, on the heels of a number of other strongly negative polls. Also, the horse race result (Bush down by a point) is indeed better for the president than the same poll's result last month (a Bush deficit of 8 points). But Bush, while behind by less, is still behind and is registering only 44 percent support, a catastrophic level for an incumbent seeking re-election.

As Frank Newport of Gallup recently put it:

None of the five presidents who won re-election [since 1956] were behind their eventual opponent in any trial heats after January in the year prior to their election.

So, one point deficit or 8 point deficit, Bush is still following a losing pattern.

And, as Newport also put it:

Based on historical patterns, Bush's [under 50 percent] job approval rating is thus underperforming the pattern of presidents who have won re-election.

Check again on the losing pattern. Bush's approval rating in this poll is a miserable 41 percent with 51 percent disapproval. And his approval rating among independents is a breathtakingly bad 34 percent.

Moreover, Bush's approval rating on the economy, despite some increase in economic optimism registered by the poll, remains mired at 40 percent approval/52 percent disapproval. And independents give him the same abysmal 34 percent they give him overall.

But that's better than Bush fares on Iraq, where he receives only a 36/58 rating, with independents downgrading him further to 29/62. He does little better on foreign policy in general, receiving a 39 percent rating from the public as a whole and a 32 percent rating for independents.

Only on the campaign against terrorism does he get an approval rating over 50 (52 percent) and, even here, independents still give him a sub-50 rating (48 percent).

And here's more trouble: wrong track (57 percent) is 21 points higher than right direction (36 percent) and is more than 2:1 among independents (62-28).

Yup, it's a referendum on the incumbent and these are terrible numbers to have if you're an incumbent--especially as we shade into July of an election year.

More on this poll tomorrow.