As everyone is presumably aware, Nader did not get the Green Party nomination last Saturday, proof perhaps that there is a God. Chris Bowers over at MyDD has an interesting post on how this impacts Nader's chances to affect the 2004 election. You should read the post, but his basic argument is that, without the easy ballot access and semi-legitimacy conferred by the Green Party nomination, Nader is toast as a serious factor in the 2004 election. Bowers asserts:

From now on, no poll that includes Nader should be taken seriously. Libertarian + Constitution now probably poses a larger threat to Bush than Nader + Cobb poses for Kerry. It is time for everyone in the Democratic Blogosphere to relax their sphincters and allow their blood pressure to drop. It is time we started paying Nader the attention he deserves in this campaign--none. To continue complaining about him would border on mental illness.

Ron Gunzburger over at Politics1 is somewhat less adamant but observes:

The Kerry folks must be thrilled knowing that now -- unlike the threat seemingly posed by Ralph Nader just a few days ago -- Nader will now only matter in a few key swing states (Florida and Michigan, plus maybe one or two others). Otherwise, the Green Party nomination of David Cobb on Saturday...gave ballot spots in 22 states to a candidate who plans to largely run a "safe states" strategy. Cobb's website states he "will focus his campaign on states neglected by the corporate parties, he has also said that he will visit and campaign in any state that invites him." In other Nader news, it appears that Nader on Saturday may again have missed the goal of obtaining Oregon ballot status in his second attempt. While more than the requisite 1,000 people attended the "short-cut" mass rally event -- thanks to help from two conservative GOP groups -- the Dems also filled some of the 1,100 seats to thwart Nader from collecting his needed signatures. Nader's folks only turned in 950 signed petitions, although some had multiple signatures. Presuming a few signatures are bad, as is always the case, Nader will have missed again. "It doesn't matter. We'll [still] get on the ballot," said Nader. At this pace, Nader appear likely to win spots on so few state ballots that he will struggle just to finish ahead of Cobb, Constitution nominee Mike Peroutka, and Libertarian nominee Michael Badnarik in terms of national vote totals.

I am inclined to agree that this decision by the Green Party drastically reduces the probability that Nader will be much of a factor this November. As regular readers of DR know, I have always been a skeptic that Nader would be much of a factor even if he did manage to get the Green Party nomination. But I am glad we will not have an opportunity to test that hypothesis.

I also agree with Bowers that it is time to stop taking those Kerry-Bush-Nader trial heats seriously. Arguably, Nader's best shot at influencing the election at this point is not through getting actual votes, but by keeping his name in the national and state trial heats and thus inflating perceptions of Bush's electoral strength.

Is that sad or what? There's a simple solution though (pollsters are you listening?). Stop putting his damn name in the trial heats.