I covered the basics of the new Washington Post poll yesterday. Today I want to comment on the notably negative views of Bush expressed by independents in this poll (the Post makes basic crosstabular information from their polls available interactively on their website, a facility which is well worth checking out).

These views are so negative that they suggest a decisive majority of independent voters may be in the process of giving up on Bush--becoming more and more convinced that his performance in office has been too poor to merit re-election and that Kerry is almost certainly a better bet than he to run the country. The more that perception settles in among these voters, the more the GOP will have to rely on big Republican turnout that is not countered by big Democratic turnout to win. I consider the latter a highly unlikely scenario in this election year.

In this poll, Bush's overall approval rating among independents is just 44 percent, with 56 percent disapproval. And in the two critical areas of Iraq (36/62) and the economy (35/65) his ratings among this group are truly dreadful and much worse than among the public as a whole.

And there is not a single issue area in this poll on which independents prefer Bush to Kerry. In fact, the closest Bush comes to Kerry is on the situation in Iraq and on the US campaign against terrorism, where he lags Kerry by a comparatively modest 5 points. In all other areas, Kerry has impressive double-digit leads over Bush: international affairs (13 points); health care (17 points); the economy (17 points); taxes (19 points); the federal budget deficit (20 points); education (21 points); and prescription drug benefits for the elderly (26 points).

How can Bush win with this kind of sentiment among independents? I don't believe he can. But how well positioned is Bush at this point to play to the independent voter and turn these numbers around? Not well I think given the hard-line conservatism he's practiced since he was elected. The (independent) chickens may be coming home to roost.