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June 16, 2004
Now That You Mention It, It Has Been a Pretty Lousy Three Years
Mother Jones magazine today released an interesting new poll that shows, in more detail than any other recent poll, just how negatively voters feel about the progress the country has made in the last three years and how ready they are for a change.
For example, the poll asked voters about a series of issues and whether the country is now better off, or worse off, on that issue than it was three years ago. The most lop-sidedly negative response was on the deficit where just 8 percent said the country was doing better than three years ago, compared to a stunning 80 percent who said the country was doing worse.
Perhaps the deficit rating is not a surprise, but it is impressive how negative voters were on a wide variety of other issues: job security (19/65, for a -46 net rating); incomes keeping up with the cost of living (20/65, -45); access to affordable health care (19/59, -40); personal privacy (19/59, -40); moral values (22/58, -36); creating good-paying jobs (27/62, -35); the economy (31/62, -31); public schools (27/51, -24); tolerance for people not like us (27/51, -24); special interests (20/43, -23); and even the tax burden (29/54, -25). (Note that the poll asked the same set of questions about progress in the last three years, but applied to the respondent him or herself, not the country as a whole. Somewhat surprisingly, the answers, while a bit less negative, were very close indeed to the responses for the country as a whole.)
No wonder only 30 percent of voters in this poll felt the country was going in the right direction, compared to 62 percent who felt the country was seriously off on the wrong track. Similarly, just 38 percent wanted to continue in the direction Bush is headed, compared to 57 percent who wanted to go in a significantly different direction.
In terms of winners and losers in the last three years, voters have negative views that are consistent with their views about the country's lack of progress. Voters felt overwhelmingly that the wealthy were winners, not losers (85/9), as well as big corporations (71/22) and CEOs (65/25). The poor, on the other hand, were viewed as losers, not winners (15/75), as were American workers (30/63) and the middle class (37/56).
Other interesting findings from the survey:
1. Kerry is ahead of Bush among RVs 49-44, including leads of 27 points among moderates, 23 points among young voters (18-29) and 9 points among independents.
2. Bush's approval rating is net negative in the poll (47/49) and is only 42 percent among independents.
3. Almost without exception in the poll, the views of independents and Democrats are relatively close together and the views of independents and Republicans are quite far apart. That includes views of how much progress the country has made in the last three years, who the winners and losers are and attitudes toward the Iraq war.
4. Attitudes toward labor unions were strikingly positive. Only John McCain scored better in a series of thermometer readings included in the poll (Sweeney-McCain: the dream ticket?)
5. Registered voters who were not deemed likely voters (LVs) were heavily skewed toward the Democrats in everything from party ID and vote intention to their views on how much progress has been made under the Bush administration. That suggests that if turnout is high this November--as almost all campaign interest measures so far suggest--that will be a boon to the Democrats.
6. If you include leaners, Democrats have a 10 point party ID advantage among RVs in the poll. Take that, Matthew Dowd.
Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 07:20 PM | link
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