A front-page article in The Washington Post today detailed Democrats' concerns that:

[Kerry] has not crisply articulated what a Kerry presidency would stand for beyond undoing much of the Bush agenda.

So far, these concerns have not slowed Kerry. But if Kerry cannot change this perception coming out of next month's Democratic convention in Boston, it could prove much harder for the party to maximize turnout, win over Ralph Nader voters and keep independents from swinging to Bush, they say.

I agree with Noam Scheiber that the real problem here for Kerry is less maximizing turnout/exciting the base than it is keeping swing voters on Kerry's side. But, as Scheiber acknowledges, the fact that "Kerry hasn't yet stumbled onto a compelling, affirmative pitch" could eventually be a real problem with these voters.

A compelling, affirmative pitch for Kerry is needed on both domestic and international issues, but that need is perhaps clearest on the international side, particularly on Iraq. Consider these data from the recent Los Angeles Times (LAT) poll.

According to the LAT poll, Bush's approval rating on Iraq is just 44 percent, with 55 percent disapproval. By 53-43, the public now believes the situation in Iraq was not worth going to war over. And by 61-35, they believe the US is getting bogged down in Iraq, rather than making good progress. Finally, just 35 percent believe Bush has offered a clear plan on how he would handle the Iraq situation, compared to 44 percent who believe he has not.

Pretty negative, huh? Trouble is, just 15 percent think Kerry has offered a clear plan on the Iraq situation, compared to 34 percent who believe he has not and 43 percent who say they haven't yet heard enough from Kerry to form an opinion. In addition, 55 percent say they generally know not too much or nothing at all about Kerry's proposals on foreign affairs. These are not encouraging figures.

Moreover, one of the key components of Kerry's Iraq plan, such as it is, meets with a tepid response. Just 46 percent say they agree with Kerry's assessment that "President Bush has lost credibility around the world and that only a new president can rally the support of U.S. allies to help stabilize Iraq", compared to 47 percent who disagree.

In an intriguing manifestation of this possible problem for Kerry, a recent Time magazine poll of Catholics, a swingish constituency, found Kerry ahead among these voters by 49-38 on who has a plan for the economy, but behind Bush by a point (44-45) on who has a plan for Iraq and trailing by 12 points (38-50) on who has a plan for fighting terrorism.

So Kerry has some work to do to convince voters, especially swing voters, he has an affirmative, compelling plan for bringing the Iraq war to a successful conclusion--in other words, that he has a plausible and responsible exit strategy for the US. While he's probably right that just announcing an exit date won't work, either as policy or politically (by 73-24, the public, according to the LAT poll, opposes simply setting "a deadline for the withdrawal of all American troops in Iraq"), that doesn't mean what he's put on the table so far is an adequate plan--especially in terms of impressing swing voters. Whether it's sooner or later--preferably sooner--he's eventually got to confront that problem.