On May 17, I mentioned the state-level polls of Hispanic LVs done by the New Democrat Network and allowed as how the full results would be released shortly.

Well, they fooled me. NDN never did post the full results on their website--hopefully, they'll get around to doing that at some point--but I did manage to secure a copy of the topline results and can now provide a bit more detail on these polls.

In that earlier post, I mentioned that:

While [Kerry] is behind among Florida Hispanics, apparently because of overwhelming suppport for Bush among Cuban-American Hispanics, in the southwestern states of Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada, Kerry's looking very strong. Among Nevada Hispanics, Kerry is ahead of Bush 58-31, a 27 point lead that is quite close to Gore's 31 point lead in 2000. And Kerry is ahead by 59-30 among Arizona Hispanics, a 29 point lead that is closely approximates Gore's 2000 margin in that state (also 31 points). Finally, in New Mexico, Kerry is ahead by an overwhelming 64-25; that 39 point lead is actually a bit larger than Gore's very healthy 34 point lead in 2000.

Here's the backstory to those strong Kerry leads among Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico Hispanics. Since the stories are pretty similar in the three states, I'll provide data for all three states in uniform AZ, NV, NM order as I go through the findings.

Start with favorability ratings. Southwestern Hispanic voters are net negative on Bush (42 favorable/53 unfavorable, 41/54, 40/52), but quite positive about on Kerry (52/28, 50/27, 55/26). And they are very positive about the Democratic party (71/18, 62/22, 72/19), but tepid-to-negative about the Republican party (48/43, 35/51, 37/44). Note also that the Democrats have huge advantages in party ID in all three states (by 51, 34 and 51 points, respectively).

Turning to Bush's approval ratings, they are poor to abysmal in all areas tested by NDN. (Note: these job ratings are not done in standard approve/disapprove format, but rather by giving respondents four choices: excellent, good, mediocre, poor, similar to the way Zogby does job ratings. "Excellent" and "good" are combined here to give Bush's positive rating in the different areas.)

Bush's overall job ratings are generally poor (37, 39, 40). His ratings on "upholding moral values" are better (43, 49, 46). But the rest of his ratings are substantially more negative than his overall job rating: keeping his promises to the Hispanic/Latino community (22, 26, 25); creating jobs (29, 34, 30); improving the quality of public schools (28, 32, 30); improving access to affordable health care (35, 30, 39); dealing with the immigration issue (27, 25, 34); protecting Social Security and Medicare (29, 33, 34); and funding social services for the elderly (30, 34, 39).

Turning to party images, the Democratic party is strongly favored over the Repoublican party in all areas tested by NDN save fighting terrorism the most effectively and helping businesses the most. These area where Democrats are favored include: helping you and your family live a better life (+36, +35, +35); upholding moral values best (18, 15, 23); being committed to public education (42, 25, 37); creating a large number of new jobs (41, 24, 41); helping working families the most (61, 37, 51); supporting universal health care (30, 42, 42); and doing a better job on immigration issues (10, 26, 15).

These states all look like they're going to be close. Based on these data, the key to taking these states for Kerry would seem to lie in ensuring a high level of Hispanic mobilization and turnout in November.