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June 8, 2004

Gallup Delivers Bad News for President Bush

Gallup released their latest poll today and it contains mostly bad news for the president. And the poll, which was conducted June 3-6, and therefore partly overlaps with the period after Reagan's death, certainly shows little evidence of a "Reagan death bounce" for Bush (though it remains possible that later polls will turn up evidence of such a bounce).

Turning first to the horse race numbers, Kerry leads Bush by 5 points among RVs (49-44), up from a 2 point lead in their May 21-23 poll. It's also interesting to note that, for the second straight poll, Gallup's LV numbers (a 6 point, 50-44 lead for Kerry) closely match their RV numbers.

Gallup helpfully provides a solid red/purple/solid blue breakdown of the Kerry-Bush RV matchup. That breakdown shows Kerry with a very healthy lead in the solid blue states (57-37( and Bush with a surprisingly modest one in the solidly red states (48-44). And, most critical to Kerry's electoral chances, he replicates his national lead of 5 points in the purple states (49-44).

The poll shows Bush with a modest uptick in his overall approval rating (up 2 points in the last two weeks to 49 percent, with disapproval remaining steady at 49 percent). But his approval rating on the economy, despite the recent pretty good job numbers, has not budged since early May and remains mired at 41 percent. In fact, this latest poll shows his disapproval rating on the economy actually going up slightly (by 2 points, to 58 percent) in the last two weeks.

Bush's approval rating on handling terrorism remains his relative strong point at 56 percent--but even that, of course, is way down from the gaudy ratings of 65 percent and above he consistently received until this spring. And his rating on Iraq is essentially unchanged from a month ago at a very poor 41 percent approval/57 percent disapproval. His rating on handling foreign affairs is only slightly better at 44/54.

But his worst ratings are in two domestic areas of potentially large significance to November's outcome: energy policy and prescription drugs for seniors. In both areas, he receives identically abysmal 33/58 ratings. The energy policy rating suggests that high gas prices are indeed hurting Bush politically and the prescription drugs rating indicates that the new discount drug cards are not--despite the predictions of various Republican operatives--improving public perceptions of Bush's performance in this area.

Not a lot of good news here for the current occupant of the Oval Office. No wonder Republicans have been floating the idea of a Reagan death bounce for Bush. Nothing else seems to be working.

Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 09:43 PM | link

 



EDM Newsletter


The Incredible Shrinking National Security Gap (Apr 13) By Ruy Teixeira


Oh, Those Liberal College Students! (Apr 12) By Ruy Teixeira


What Does the Public Want on Immigration? (Apr 5) By Ruy Teixeira


Exurbia: The Democrats' Next Frontier (Mar 31) By Ruy Teixeira


2006 Election Outlook: The Macro and the Micro (Mar 30) By Ruy Teixeira


2006 Campaign Watch (Mar 24) By Ruy Teixeira


The Iraq War, Three Years On (Mar 22) By Ruy Teixeira


Will the Real Swingers Please Stand Up? (Mar 22) By Alan Abramowitz


Did the Bin Laden Tape Tip the Election to Bush? (Mar 21) By David Gopoian


The UN: Good Idea, Bad Execution (Mar 16) By Ruy Teixeira


Strong Disapproval Matters (Mar 10) By Alan Abramowitz


The Great Bail-Out (Mar 8) By Ruy Teixeira


Unmarried America: Demographics and Attitudes (Mar 1) By Ruy Teixeira


Weekly analysis of latest public opinion polls by Ruy Teixeira.


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Articles by Ruy Texieira


"The Battle for the Exurbs" by Ruy Teixeira (New York Times)


"Movement Interruptus" by Ruy Teixeira and John B. Judis (American Prospect)


"Old Democrats and the Shock of the New" by Ruy Teixeira (Varieties of Progressivism in America)


"Would Reagan Recognize the GOP?" by John B. Judis (TNR)


"Reality Check" by Ruy Teixeira (contribution to Boston Review forum on "How the Democrats Can Win")


"White Flight: Bush Loses His Base" by John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira (TNR)


"Don't Mourn, Mobilize" by Ruy Teixeira (American Prospect)


"Newer Democrats" by Ruy Teixeira (The Gadflyer)


"Emerging Democrats" by Ruy Teixeira (Prospect, UK)


"How Kerry Could Beat Bush" by Ruy Teixeira (Salon.com)


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