The Annenberg Election Survey has just released some new data on "persuadable voters" in the battleground states (about 11 percent of the nation's public) and it is very interesting data indeed. (Annenberg defines persuadable voters as those that say they are undecided or who have a preference but say there's a "good chance" they could change their minds; for Annenebeg's definition of battleground states, see my May 26 post.) Probably the most striking thing about the data is how little these voters like George Bush and where he's led the country.

Consider these findings. Swing voters in swing states give Bush an overall approval rating of just 44 percent. But that's good compared to how they feel about Bush's handling of the economy and Iraq. In both cases, Bush's approval rating is a stunningly low 30 percent, with 60 percent disapproval. Wow. Sounds like these voters are ready for a change.

That's confirmed by their responses to th right direction/wrong track question: 2:1 wrong track over right direction (59/25). In addition, 85 percent of these voters believe the current state of the economy is only fair or poor and only 14 percent believe Bush's economic policies have made the economy better.

As Bush's 30 percent approval rating on Iraq suggests, these voters are very negative indeed on the Iraq situation and whether it's accomplishing anything positive. By an overwhelming 69-20 margin, they don't believe Bush has a clear plan to bring the Iraq situation to a successful conclusion. By a similar margin (67-19), they don't believe the war in Iraq has reduced the risk of terrorist attacks against the US. They also don't believe, by 53-40, that the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over.

And they're interested in getting US troops out of Iraq as soon as possible. By 52-41, they say we should bring our troops home as soon as possible, rather than keeping troops in Iraq until a stable government is formed (the public as a whole narrowly favors keeping troops in Iraq by 49-46).

Note also that Bush's approval rating on handling the war on terrorism among these voters is net negative (44/50).

Besides their decidedly negative views on Bush, other characteristics of these voters suggest their accessibility to Kerry's campaign. Compared to the general public, either nationwide or just in the battleground states, these voters are less likely to describe themselves as conservative, less likely to be Republican, less likely to attend church frequently and less likely to own a gun.

Is it a done deal for John Kerry among these voters then? No. He still has to close the sale. At this point, his net favorability rating among these voters (+3) is no higher than Bush's. These voters are also paying less attention to the campaign than other voters, so Kerry will need to catch their attention to turn them decisively in his direction.

And that brings us back to the boldness issue I've been posting about lately. Kerry needs to excite voters in general about his campaign and these voters in particular. As the campaign unfolds, an overly cautious approach may miss an opportunity to turn the swing voters in swing states into a Kerry constituency. And note these voters' sentiment about keeping troops in Iraq. Even if he doesn't want to specify an exit date, he does need to convey to these voters that he has a plan for successfully concluding the Iraq war and getting those troops back home.