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May 25, 2004
Sorting Out the Latest Horse Race Data
We have three new public polls to consider:
CBS News, May 20-23
ABC News/Washington Post, May 20-23
Gallup, May 21-23
Note that the survey dates for all three polls are virtually identical. Comparing apples to apples--that is, my favorite apples of RV, Kerry-Bush matchups--all three polls agree Kerry is ahead: Gallup by 48-46; ABC News by 49-47 and CBS News by 49-41.
On the CBS News result, their internals show Kerry leading by 16 points (!) among independents (51-35). My my. Considering that Kerry only needs to win independents by a few points to pretty much guarantee himself an election victory, that's quite a result.
For what it's worth, Gallup finally has its RVs and LVs agreeing: Kerry is ahead in both samples by two. In their last poll, Bush was ahead by 1 among LVs, while behind by 6 among RVs.
Gallup also provides a breakdown of the RV, Kerry-Bush matchup by red, blue and purple states (thanks, Gallup!). That breakdown shows Kerry leading by 5 points in the purple states (50-45). In 2000, Gore and Bush were dead-even (48-48) in the purple states.
Not a bad set of horse race results for Mr. Kerry, not bad at all.
Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 05:15 PM | link
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