Yesterday, I struck a few cautionary notes about how optimistic Democrats should be, despite the recent promising political news. But today we'll balance that by taking a walk on the optimistic side, courtesy of our friends at Democracy Corps.

Their latest analysis memo is titled: "Bush's Long Odds: A Report on the New Phase of the 2004 Election", based on their latest survey of LVs, conducted May 10-13. (You can also find a very detailed chart pack here.) Well, I don't know about "long odds"--that probably overstates the case--but the more judicious "[h]e is more likely to lose than win", as they put it in the first paragraph of their memo, seems more defensible.

Why are they so optimistic? In their view:

Whether it is the vote or job approval or personal favorability, Bush has become a 47 percent president at best. In almost every area, he is being dragged down by even stronger negative trends....In this new phase, the whole framework for the election now re-enforces Bush’s marginality. Big forces are at work, undercutting Bush’s case for progress and point of view on the economy, budget priorities, foreign policy and national security. As a result, Bush wins the argument in no area in this survey, putting the election on the Democrats’ terrain.

Here are some of the data that support their viewpoint. The poll has right direction/wrong track at 37/56 and has DCorps' related question "do you think the country should continue in the direction Bush is headed or go in a significantly different direction?" at 42 Bush's direction/54 significantly different direction.

Moreover, when this question is applied to 12 different specific issue areas, voters only want to continue in Bush's direction on one area, the war on terrorism (56/42), but even here Bush's net of +14 is sharply down from a net of +33 in January. In all other areas, Bush is net negative on which direction the country should go in: the federal budget (-31); health care (-28); prescription drug coverage for seniors (-22); jobs in America (-19); the economy (-16); foreign policy (-13), Iraq (-11); middle class living standards (-10); national priorities (-8); education (-8); and taxes (-4).

The wish (by 13 points) to go in a significantly different direction on foreign policy is a particularly important result. In February, the public was split down on this question. And DCorps reports that, as a predictor of the presidential vote, judgements on the direction of Bush's foreign policy are as important as any other issue in predicting the presidential vote (which DCorps has at 49-47 Kerry) and substantially stronger than judgements about Bush's direction in the war on terrorism.

Not surprisingly, the poll finds confidence in the Iraq situation declining rapidly. By 14 points (55-41), voters now say the war in Iraq was not worth the cost of US lives and dollars. And, by an identical 55-41 margin, voters believe the US is losing control in Iraq, rather than making progress. Finally, by identical 50-45 margins, voters believe that the war on Iraq has made the war on terrorism harder, rather than helped it and believe that the Iraq war has made us less, not more, secure.

On the economy, it's worth quoting the DCorps analysis memo at length:

It is time to take the voters’ frustration with the economy seriously, despite continuing reports on job creation, the strong economy and the good news that lies ahead. This month’s results are the most dramatic yet, as Bush drops on economic measures rival the changes on Iraq. It is possible that elite satisfaction with the economy and Bush’s talk about economic progress is producing an economic backlash in the country, particularly among average and middle class voters.

Virtually all public polls report a drop in Bush’s job ratings on the economy. This
survey re-enforces that: 57 percent want to go in a significantly different direction on the economy, with 48 percent saying they feel strongly about that. The number for change has reached over 60 percent for non-college voters. This month, there has been a dramatic rise, up from 57 to 65 percent, saying there has been economic gains for the highest earners, but not for the middle class, for whom jobs are scarce and health care costs are skyrocketing.

Just so. This analysis can be constructively read in conjunction with Richard Stevenson's rather befuddled article in The New York Times "Economic Signs Are Pointing Up, but Bush's Ratings Are Not". Sorry, Richard, it's not just that those pesky voters are confused by all the Iraq news and can't see just how good things are getting. For the average voter, things really aren't all that great.....and that's trouble for Bush, no matter what happens in Iraq.

"Long odds" for Bush's re-election? Maybe not. But unfavorable odds? Very possibly.