Two new polls--one from Newsweek and the other from Time/CNN--have Bush hitting new lows in important ways.

First, the Newsweek poll. In this poll, Bush's overall approval rating is down to 42 percent, with 52 percent disapproval, his lowest rating yet in any public poll. (Note: Zogby also has his rating at 42 percent, but Zogby job ratings are based on a different question and are therefore not directly comparable with other public polls.) And Bush's approval rating on Iraq is down to 35 percent, with 57 percent disapproval, also a new low. Wow. It was just a few days ago that his Iraq rating went below 40 for the first time. Yes, the Bush campaign is on the move!

Bad as the Newsweek findings are for Bush, the findings from the CNN poll are probably worse. First, the poll finds Kerry ahead of Bush in practically every issue area, including protecting the environment (+22); health care (+19); reducing the deficit (+18); handling the economy (+13); and even taxes (+6). But here's the really significant part: besides these domestic issues, Kerry is also ahead of Bush on handling foreign policy (+2) and handling the situation in Iraq (+3). A couple of weeks ago, Bush had a healthy lead on handling Iraq; last week Bush had a small lead; this week, he's behind. Clearly the tide is turning.

And even on his "signature issue", as it were, handling the war on terrorism, he only has a 7 point lead over Kerry (49-42). I am quite sure that that is the smallest lead we have seen yet for Bush on this issue. If he loses a few more points and Kerry gains a few more, he and Kerry will be essentially tied on handling terrorism! I suspect that would get them kind of worried down at Bush-Cheney re-elect.

And here's more on Bush's declining terrorism advantage. According to the CNN poll, more people now think Bush is doing a poor job (47 percent) than think he is doing a good job (46 percent) on handling terrorism. Ouch. That's gotta hurt when you used to think that one issue guaranteed you re-election. (Note that this question isn't phrased as a typical job rating ("Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Bush is doing handling......"), so we can't really say his job rating on handling terrorism is now below 50. But, on the evidence of this question, I would not be surprised to see such a rating fairly soon.)

Turning to the horse race data, only one of the polls mentioned above, provides registered voter (RV) data--the Newsweek poll--and that poll has Kerry ahead of Bush, albeit by only a single point (46-45; though note that Kerry has a nice 7 point lead among independents). The CNN and Zogby polls both use the less desirable (in my view) likely voter (LV) approach and both have Kerry ahead by more--CNN by 5 (51-46) and Zogby also by 5 (47-42).

And here's something to chew on: in all three of these polls, the addition of Nader to the trial heat question does not reduce Kerry's margin, since Nader winds up drawing about equally from Kerry's and Bush's support. Interesting.