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May 14, 2004
Kerry Ahead in Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin and Oregon
State polls are starting to reflect the move toward Kerry we're seeing in the national polls. An Ohio ARG poll of likely voters (LVs), conducted May 10-12, shows Kerry ahead of Bush by 7 points (49-42), even with Nader in the mix. Note that independents favor Kerry by 5 points; by comparison, when the Democrats lost the state in 2000, independents favored Bush by 16 points.
A Hamilton, Beattie and Staff poll of Florida LVs for ACT, conducted April 29-May 9, has Kerry up by 3 (50-47). Note that, while Kerry and Bush were tied among independents in the first half of the poll, in the latter half of the poll Kerry led by an amazing 31 points among independents. In 2000, Gore and Bush were dead-even among Florida independents.
A Lake Snell Perry poll of Wisconsin LVs, also for ACT, has Kerry ahead, this time by 9 points, and even with Nader in the mix. Kerry leads by 13 points among independents; in 2000, Bush actually won independents in the state by 6 points.
Finally, a Research 2000 poll of Oregon LVs, for the Portland Tribune, has Kerry ahead by 4 (50-46), with a 15 point lead among independent voters. In 2000, independent voters were evenly split between Gore and Bush.
Perhaps it's just me, but I think I'm beginning to see a pattern here.
Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 05:37 PM | link
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