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May 6, 2004
Yes, Bad News Does Hurt Bush (Part Deux)
Yesterday, I was arguing that this race is a referendum on the incumbent and Kerry backers should take heart from how poorly--and increasingly so--Bush is doing in the eyes of voters. The release of the latest Gallup poll, provides abundant support for that viewpoint.
There's even some good news on the horse race numbers people have been obsessing about. Kerry is now tied with Bush in Gallup's RV matchup (47-47), an improvement from his 46-50 performance in their mid-April poll. The same pattern can be seen in Gallup's LV version of this matchup, with Kerry ahead 49-48, compared to lagging 46-51 in mid-April.
Note also that, continuing a pattern I've noted of late, Kerry is doing better in the battleground states than overall. In an LV Kerry-Bush-Nader matchup (the only relevant data Gallup provides), Kerry is ahead of Bush by 4 points (48-44) in the "purple states", while tied in the national race.
But the really cool stuff here is how dreadfully Bush is doing in every area Gallup asked about. In terms of whether people are satisfied or dissatisfied with way things in the country are going, 36 percent say satisfied and 62 percent say dissatisfied--the worst rating of his presidency.
Bush's overall approval rating is now 49 percent approve/48 percent disapprove, tied for the worst of his presidency. And here are his approval ratings in four specific areas, all the worst of his presidency: the economy, 41 approve/56 disapprove; foreign affairs, 42/53; the situation in Iraq, 42/55; and terrorism, 52/45 (!).
Hope that cheers everybody up.
Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 11:56 AM | link
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