Tim Grieve has a useful article on Salon.com today on Democrats' "Premature Panic". He has a nice lead that should make help Democrats take a deep breath and calm down a bit:

With just months to go in an election that ought to be a referendum on President Bush, the New York Times runs a front-page story: The Democrats are in serious trouble. Although Bush's approval ratings are low, the presumptive Democratic nominee can't get any traction. His campaign "continues to confront a cloud of doubts and reservations," the Times says, and voters are complaining that he hasn't offered the country a clear vision for the future.

It may sound like the Times on John Kerry in 2004. In fact, it's the Times on Bill Clinton in 1992.

Grieve goes on to point out:

The Times [in 1992] said then that unnamed "political professionals in the Democratic Party" were troubled that Clinton hadn't made a better impression on the nation's voters. [Adam] Nagourney's piece Sunday reported that "Democratic Party officials" have similar worries about Kerry.

But there's a key difference here: In April 1992, the New York Times/CBS News poll showed Clinton trailing President George H.W. Bush, 49 percent to 40 percent, among registered voters. The latest New York Times/CBS News poll shows Kerry and President George W. Bush in a statistical dead heat.

Yes, yes, 2004 is not 1992, there was the Perot factor and so on. But food for thought, no? Perhaps we're not as bad off as many Democrats seem determined to believe.

Democrats would get less hysterical, I think, if they firmly kept in mind one fundamental truth abut this election: it's a referendum on the incumbent, as Chuck Todd reminds us, not John Kerry. So they key thing at this state of the campaign is how voters feel about the incumbent. If it's negative, then Kerry is likely to win if he can convince voters he's an acceptable alternative. But that is a process that will take some time, since voters who are thinking of abandoning the incumbent for his opponent are unlikely to do so all at once. Instead, that change is likely to happen in increments as Kerry makes his case and voters get to know him better. In short, the sudden 10 point leads that some Democrats appear to be looking for are unlikely and their current absence is no cause for panic or even much serious worry.

Rather than rending their garments about how close the horse race currently is, Democrats should be taking heart from the continued growth of negative feelings about Bush. The latest Quinniapiac University poll has Bush's approval rating down to 46 percent approve/47 percent disapprove--their first net negative rating for Bush and well into the incumbent danger zone. The also have Bush's approval rating on the economy at 41 approve/52 disapprove, on Iraq at 42/51 and even his rating on handling terrorism at just 54 percent.

Voters just don't think Bush is doing a good job. And that's great for Kerry. So, relax, take a deep breath and try to stay calm. The fundamentals of the race are very promising. And the last thing Kerry needs is for Democrats to go wobbly on him just because he doesn't already have a big lead.