Arizona State University and KAET-TV have just released a new poll of RVs in Arizona. And here's the shocker: Bush is ahead of Kerry by only 3 points, 41-38, even with Nader in the question and drawing 3 percent. It's bad for Bush that's it's so close. And it's bad for Bush that he's drawing only 41 percent as the incumbent; undecideds usually break heavily for the challenger.

How did this red state get into play, when it's only voted once for the Democratic candidate since 1948? Well, that one time wasn't so long ago--1996--and the fact is that many factors are conspiring to turn Arizona from red to blue. It's no longer the state it was when Barry Goldwater was its dominant politician. Instead, it elected a popular and dynamic Democratic governor, Janet Napolitano, in the very Republican year of 2002 and it seems headed in a direction very different from that of the Republican hard right conservatives who have dominated the state's politics for many years (and are now busily isolating themselves from the Arizona mainstream; see this post by Mark Schmitt).

George Will summarizes some of the relevant changes in Arizona in a recent column, including urbanization, in-migration and the growth of the Hispanic population, which went from 19 to 25 percent of the state in the 1990's.

The two key counties to watch in Arizona are Pima County (Tucson) and Maricopa County (Phoenix). Democrats have done particularly well in Pima, which Gore carried by 8 points in the 2000 election. But the Democrats have also benefitted from a continuing pro-Democratic trend in Maricopa county, the largest county in Arizona and the county with the largest growth in the nation. In 1988, Bush senior carried Maricopa by a 65 to 34 percent margin; in ‘00, his son’s margin was down to just 53-43, a swing of 21 points toward the Democrats.

These trends continued in the 2002 gubernatorial election with Democrat Janet Napolitano carrying Pima county by 14 points and only losing Maricopa narrowly to Republican Matt Salmon by 2 points.

Maricopa's pro-Democratic trend seems particularly tied to the growth of its Hispanic population. In the 1990's, the share of Hispanics in Maricopa went up about a point a year, while the white share went down about a point a year. Given that Arizona Hispanics vote unusually heavily Democratic, like southwestern Hispanics in general, that is highly significant. Democracy Corps' recent poll of Hispanics, in fact, had Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada Hispanics voting Democratic by 33 points, 10 points more than among Hispanics nationwide.

Sounds like the stage is set for an Arizona surprise this November.

Note: this post corrects an earlier version where Arizona didn't get credit for voting for Truman, FDR, etc.; sorry Arizona.