We can now safely disregard the theory that bad news somehow doesn't hurt Bush politically. He may be able to delay or slightly mitigate that harm but, as common sense would suggest, he cannot escape it.

Consider the results of the just-released CBS News/New York Times poll, conducted April 23-27. Bush's approval rating is down to 46 percent approve/47 percent disapprove (40/47 among independents), the lowest of his presidency and the first net negative rating in this poll. Bush's approval rating on foreign policy is now 40/51 (36/52 among independents), also the lowest of his presidency, as is his rating on Iraq at 41/52 (independents: 37/53). And his rating on the economy remains below 40 at 39/54 (36/57 among independents).

Those are some mighty bad numbers. Only his rating on "handling the campaign against terrorism" remains fairly strong at 60/34, but even here that is is the second lowest of his presidency.

As for right direction/wrong track, his performance is even more dismal in this poll than in the Democracy Corps poll discussed yesterday. Only 36 percent say the country is going in the right direction, compared to 55 percent who say it's gotten seriously off on the wrong track (and that's 30/59--almost 2:1 wrong track!--among independents).

The poll also indicates that Kerry now has a small 2 point lead among RVs in the head-to-head horse race (46-44). So much for Bush's mid-April mini-surge. And Kerry's ahead by 4 points among independents.

Speaking of the direction things are going, I didn't get a chance to cite these results from the DCorps poll yesterday, but they're worth considering. DCorps asked about a wide range of issues and whether the country should continue in Bush's direction or go in a significantly different direction. Except for the war on terrorism, where voters favor the Bush direction, voters favor a significantly different direction than Bush's in every area: the federal budget; health care; jobs; prescription drug coverage for seniors; the economy; middle class living standards; taxes; foreign policy; Iraq; and education. Apparently there are a lot of time-for-a-change voters out there.

But the worst news for Bush is the extent to which public support for the Iraq war is declining. How about the key question of whether the war a mistake or not, an indicator I've discussed several times lately? In the CBS News poll, the public says yes, 48-46 (49-44 among independents). Last April, sentiment was overwhelming (70-24) that the war was not a mistake.

On a closely-related question, whether the US "did the right thing" in taking military action against Iraq or should have stayed out, the public is now almost evenly-split (47 right thing/46 stayed out; independents are 44/47). Just four months ago, it was 64 right thing/28 stayed out.

On whether the result of the war was worth the loss of life and other costs, the public now believes, by 25 points, that the result wasn't worth the cost (58-33; 61-31 among independents). And on whether Iraq was a threat that required immediate military action, we are now down to only one-third who believe that immediate action was necessary, compared to about two-thirds who believe the Iraq threat either could have been contained or was not a threat at all. No wonder people now believe, by 61-34, that the Bush administration was too quick to get American military forces involved, rather than that the administration tried hard enough to reach a diplomatic solution.

Next they'll be saying the Bush administration didn't make the decision to invade Iraq when they said they did--in March, 2003--but rather before that. In fact, that's exactly what they say, by 68-23, even when explicitly informed that the Bush administration claims they made that decision in March. In other words, the public overwhelmingly believes they're lying about that.

Ah, but the public doesn't really care, right, because they are convinced the Bush administration has made them safer. Not really. Less than half (49 percent) now believe Bush administration policies have made then safer from terrorism, compared to 46 percent who believe either these policies have made them less safe (25 percent) or had no effect (21 percent). Among independents, it's actually a majority sentiment (51-44) that Bush administration policies have not made the US safer from terrorism. And note this: in mid-January of this year, the public believed overwhelmingly, by 68-29, that Bush administration policies were making them safer. There's something going on here and it's all bad for Bush and his re-election bid.

And if people are now unsure whether Bush administration policies overall have actually made them safer from terrorism, they are very clear that the war in Iraq has not had that effect. By 4:1 (80/18), the public believes the Iraq war has either increased the threat of terrorism or kept it about the same, rather than decreased that threat.

What does the public want to do now about Iraq? They're not quite sure. While four months ago they believed by 21 points (56-35) that the US should stay in Iraq as long as necessary to establish a stable democracy, rather than leave as soon as possible, now they are split right down the middle on this (46-46).

Iraq may not be "another Vietnam", in substantive terms. But sentiment about Iraq is starting to look more and more like sentiment about Vietnam. And if you're running for re-election, that ain't good.