Gallup put out an interesting analysis today of which issues help Bush and which issues help Kerry. Gallup asked respondents which of three issues--economic conditions, terrorism and the situation in Iraq--would be most important to their vote for president. Among likely voters, 39 percent selected economic conditions, 28 percent picked terrorism and 22 percent selected Iraq.

Among economic conditions likely voters (Gallup provides no relevant RV data), Kerry led over Bush 67-31 in their trial heat question. And among those who selected Iraq, Kerry also led, though by a smaller 59-40 margin. Only among terrorism voters did Bush lead, though by an overwhelming 83-14 margin.

Which leads me to speculate that perhaps Bush' s recent press conference gave a short-term boost to the salience of terrorism (still clearly his strongest issue), thereby explaining his recent (small) gains in trial heat questions. And it also suggests that--contrary to the idea that Bush is somehow not getting hurt by the deteriorating situation in Iraq (see my April 25 discussion)--the more the public focuses on Iraq, the worse it's likely to be for him politically.

And perhaps he's already starting to fall off a bit from that mid-April bump. The latest Democracy Corps poll of likely voters (they report no RV results) has Bush ahead of Kerry by only a single point (49-48). The poll also shows Bush's approval rating down 2 points since late March (to 50 percent) and right direction/wrong track at 40/54, down from 42/50 last month.

In addition, DCorps asks the following question, which gets directly at the issue of whether this will be a time-for-a-change election: "Now let me ask overall, do you think the country should continue in the direction Bush is headed or go in a significantly different direction?" The response: 45 percent Bush's direction/53 percent different direction. And that's also down--it was 46/50 last month.

More on this interesting new poll tomorrow.