That's the contention of today's front page story by Dana Milbank in The Washington Post. There's only one slight problem with this: the American public, by any reasonable standard is turning against the war. Now you could reasonably say that support for the war effort has not completely collapsed, despite the recent string of bad news. Or that Bush's rhetoric is helping slow the rate of decline. Or that his "oratory" helped contribute to the recent rally effect that may have elevated Bush in the polls by a few points. But you can't say the public isn't turning against the war, because they are.

Here are some recent data from the Post's own poll, which Milbank rather selectively cites in his piece. That poll has close to an even split (51-47) on whether the war with Iraq was worth fighting. The poll also shows a close split on a related question: whether the US did the right thing in going to war with Iraq or whether it was a mistake (52-46). Last April, this same question was 81-16.

Let's dwell on that last datum a bit. In the last year, the public has gone from a 65 point margin in favor of the Iraq war being the right thing to do, not a mistake, to a mere 6 point margin. And, as I mentioned on Friday, one poll question is already returning a plurality in favor of the war being a mistake (and that was down from a lopsidedly positive reply--67 percent right decision/29 percent mistake--four months before).

If that's not turning against the war, I don't know what is. With the war in Vietnam, it took about two years to get to the point where we are already in terms of thinking the war was a mistake. So, not only is the public turning against the war, it's turning against it fast, by recent standards.

And here are some more data from the Post's own poll, none of which make it into Milbank's article.

People feel, by 51-34, that the middle east is less stable, rather than more stable, as a result of the war. They think, by 57-37, that the US will not be able to establish a stable democracy in Iraq. They also believe, by 35-29, that the war in Iraq has left the US in a weaker not stronger, position in the world (last April, the public thought the war will make us stronger, by 52-12). And about two-thirds (65 percent) now say that, given the goals vs. costs of the war, the number of casualties we are sustaining is unacceptable.

Oh, but this isn't "turning against the war", I suppose. Perhaps it merely qualifies as "raising a quizzical eyebrow".

Of course, it's not just the Post's own poll:

In the most recent CBS News poll, only 36 percent believe the war has made the US safer from terrorism; only 34 percent believe the Iraq war is a major part of the war against terrorism; and just 15 percent believe the Bush administration has clearly explained how long US troops will be in Iraq.

In the most recent Pew poll, the public is now close to evenly split on whether to keep troops in Iraq until a stable government is etablished (50 percent) or simply bring troops home as soon as possible (44 percent). That's down from strong 63-32 support for keeping troops there in January.

And, as I mentioned in my post on Friday, the latest Ipsos poll finds that the public believes by about 2:1 that the military action in Iraq has increased the threat of terrorism in the world, rather than decreased it ("increased" and "decreased" were tied only four months ago). That poll also found that, by 17 points, the public believes the Iraq war will increase, not decrease, the amount of terrorism at home in the US. (Note that the latest Annenberg election survey had that sentiment even stronger--2:1 in favor of the Iraq war increasing the amount of terrorism in the US).

Ah, but the public isn't turning against the war. Right.

The article's evidence, such as it is, for this absurd contention seems to revolve around the alleged fact that Bush's oratory has convinced the American public of three points:

1. That the US will prevail in Iraq. But according to the Post's own poll, the public thinks the US has gotten "bogged down" in Iraq (59 percent), rather than that the US is making good progress (41 percent). And note the view cited above on how the US will not be able to establish a stable democracy in Iraq.

2. That the fighting in Iraq is related to war against Al Qaeda. Sure people think the war in Iraq is related to the war against Al Qaeda--but negatively so! As the data above clearly show, the public believes the war in Iraq is increasing the threat of terrorism and the danger that a group like Al Qaeda will hit the US homeland again. Note also that few Americans think the war in Iraq is major part of the war against terrorism and that most Americans think fighting Al Qaeda not the war in Iraq should the focus of our efforts to fight terrorism.

3. That most Iraqis and many foreign countries support US actions in Iraq. But the latest Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) poll (which Milbank cites at another point in the article for different purposes) finds the public saying, by 51-47, that the majority of the Iraqis want us to leave, not stay. That's a big change from November when the same question returned a 39 percent leave/58 percent stay response.

Beyond these "facts", the article cites PIPA findings that indicate many members of the public continue to harbor apparent misconceptions about the ties between Al Qaeda and Saddam and about the existence of WMD and WMD programs in Iraq prior to the war. True enough. But these misconceptions, while still at disturbing levels, are nevertheless substantially lower in most cases than they were prior to the war. And the continued harboring of misconceptions is not evidence the public is not turning against the war; it merely means they have misconceptions. When the public was turning against the Vietnam war in 1967-68, many of those who were starting to think the war was a mistake still harbored lots of mistaken, if not bizarre, ideas about the origins of the Vietnam conflict, who controlled Ho Chi Minh, etc. But their misconceptions, in the end, did not prevent them from opposing the Vietnam war and punishing those politicians whom they felt had led them astray. I suspect the same phenomenon will play itself out with the Iraq war.

As added evidence for this view, the PIPA poll already shows that the way Bush has dealt with the Iraq situation, on net, cuts against him electorally. According to the poll, 41 percent say Bush's actions in Iraq will decrease the likelihood that they will vote for him, compared to 34 percent who say his Iraq actions will increase their likelihood of supporting him. That compares to 30/35 last September, when it appeared his Iraq policy was a net benefit to him.

But times have changed. Time for the Post to catch up.