Two polls released today--Gallup and ABC News/Washington Post--give small leads to Bush over Kerry in presidential trial heat questions. The Gallup poll (using RVs and the Kerry-Bush not Kerry-Bush-Nader trial heat) shows Bush with a 4 point lead (50-46), while the ABC News poll gives Bush a 1 point lead (49-48). (Note that this latter result is not from a standard Kerry-Bush trial heat question, which ABC News chose not to ask, but rather from combining a Kerry-Bush-Nader trial heat question with a followup to Nader supporters/undecideds on who they would support if Nader doesn't run or isn't on the ballot. Guess they just wanted to be different.)

So: two polls, two RV leads, one taken April 16-18 (Gallup), the other taken April 15-18 (ABC News).

Here are other RV Kerry-Bush results for April:

Newsweek, April 8-9....................Kerry, 50-43
ARG, April 6-9.............................Kerry, 50-44
Gallup, April 5-8..........................Kerry, 48-45
Fox, April 6-7..............................Kerry, 44-43
CBS News, March 30-April 1.........Kerry, 48-43

Note that each of these polls has Kerry ahead. And note that there were no relevant polls conducted in the period from April 10 to April 15, the start date of the new ABC News poll. But that poll and the new Gallup poll do indicate that Bush has edged ahead, so a plausible theory is that Bush received some sort of a bump up in that period.

What might that have been? Given the timing, Bush's advertisements do not seem like the logical candidate for such a bump. A more plausible possibility is his televised speech/press conference on April 13, where he presented no clear plans on how to deal with the problems in Iraq, but did urge Americans to stay the course, be tough and so on. I thought at the time it was possible he would get some sort of small, short-lived rally effect from these posturings and that may have come to pass. Such an effect was likely aided and abetted by the very low profile of the Kerry campaign which provided Bush with a relatively clear field to push the electorate in his direction.

I also thought that "the really significant political development in the recent period is the undercutting of support for Bush's war in Iraq and for his handling of the war on terror", not the ups and downs of the horse race, and I continue to think that.

Indeed, there are plenty of findings in these new polls that indicate Bush's troubles in these areas are here to stay. The Gallup poll shows the public about split (52-46) about whether it was or was not worth going to war in Iraq. And the ABC News poll has a similar split (51-47) on whether the war with Iraq was worth fighting. That poll also shows a close split on a related question: whether the US did the right thing in going to war with Iraq or whether it was a mistake (52-46). Last April, this same question was 81-16.

People also feel, by 51-34, that the middle east is less stable, rather than more stable, as a result of the war. They think, by 57-37, that the US will not be able to establish a stable democracy in Iraq. They also believe, by 35-29, that the war in Iraq has left the US in a weaker not stronger, position in the world (last April, the public thought the war will make us stronger, by 52-12). And about two-thirds (65 percent) now say that, given the goals vs. costs of the war, the number of casualties we are sustaining is unacceptable.

The ABC News poll also indicates that Bush's approval ratings in a wide range of areas have improved only marginally in some areas, while continuing to slip in others. His ratings continue to be net negative on the economy, Iraq, social security, health insurance, taxes, creating jobs, the budget deficit, prescription drugs and even same-sex marriage. Nor are people more convinced the country is moving in the right direction; these numbers continue to be dismal with wrong track (57 percent) far outnumbering right direction (42 percent).

The really positive changes for Bush are in a series of questions asking people who they trust more, Bush or Kerry, on a range of issues. In every area, Kerry's advantages are smaller or disadvantages greater than than they were in ABC News' March 7 poll. For example, Kerry was preferred on the economy by 12 in March, now he and Bush are tied. Or Kerry was ahead by 20 on health insurance in March, now he is ahead by just 6. And so on. These are big changes on these preferences, not just from early March but from the end of March Battleground poll I discussed yesterday and even from the (notoriously pro-Bush) Fox poll 10 days ago.

That suggests, again, not the effect of Bush campaign advertisements, but rather a rally effect compression of Kerry's advantages over Bush (rally effects usually benefit presidents across unrelated areas). Therefore, Bush's improved showing in these areas is unlikely to stick around, given an adequate push-back by Kerry's campaign.

This is probably as good a time as any for the Kerry campaign to start that push-back, including especially defining Kerry positively for voters. Bush, as the data clearly show, has been massively undermined in his core area of strength, and, despite his much-vaunted advertisements and (probably more important) having the field to himself for six weeks, has Kerry breathing down his neck.

If the Kerry campaign can kick their game up a notch, they should really start to make the Bushies sweat.