Initially, most of the commentary suggested those ads in the battleground states worked very well and had Kerry on the run, driving up his unfavorables and defining him negatively in voters' eyes. But now, as the GOP steps down its ad buys, the verdict is more cautious about how well the ads worked. Ronald Brownstein's Los Angeles Times article notes that, according to Anthony Corrado, a leading expert on campaign finance, "since March 4 — just after Kerry in effect wrapped up his party's nomination — Bush has bought about as much television advertising as past presidential candidates purchased for the entire general election campaign."

Corrado's assessment: ...."frankly, [the president's campaign] "didn't move the [poll] numbers that much."

Recently-released Annenberg Election Survey data confirm this assessment. Kerrry's favorability rating in the March 1-15 period was 49 favorable/39 unfavorable in the "TV states" (battleground states where the Bush campaign has been running ads). In the March 16-31 period, his rating in these states was essentially unchanged: 48 favorable/40 unfavorable.

Other Annenberg election survey data from March 21-April 7 show that, among the general public, Bush holds statistically significant advantages over Kerry on 7 out of 17 traits, while Kerry holds such advantages on 4 traits. But it's interesting to note that, among "persuadable voters" (those undecided or those who said there was a good chance they might switch their candidate preference)--the presumed target of these ads--the situation was the reverse: Kerry had significant advantages on 8 and Bush on only 3. In particular, persuadable voters, in contrast with the public as a whole, thought the phrase "says one thing, does another" applied more to Bush than Kerry and also thought "changes his mind for political reasons" applied more to Bush than Kerry.

Of course, it would be nice to see data for persuadables within TV states, but, alas, their sample sizes couldn't begin to justify looking at such a small group of respondents.

More interesting data come from the new "Battleground 2004" survey conducted by Tarrance Group/Lake Sosin Perry between March 28 and March 31. (Note that this is an LV poll, which presents problems, but at least it's a light screen--they only toss out RVs who say they are "not very likely" to vote.)

According to the accompanying analysis memo written by Lake et. al., while Kerry leads by a point in overall, he leads by 6 points in the battleground states, where Bush's ad barrage was directed. (Note that, compared to the widely-publicized late March figures from Gallup, this survey is more recent and bases its battleground state figures on about twice the number of LV respondents.)

The poll also shows Kerry ahead by 7 points among independents and by 22 points among moderates.

In terms of specific issues, the poll indicates that, where Kerry is strong, he is generally farther ahead of Bush in the battleground states than among voters as a whole. For example, Kerry is ahead by 25 points in the battleground states on protecting the middle class, compared to 19 points among all voters. Other examples include: improving the health care system (+24/+19); strenthening social security (+23/+19); prescription drugs (+20/+15); creating jobs (+19/+17); the economy (+12/+8); holding down federal spending (+11/+4); keeping American prosperous (+9/+6); and sharing your values (+7/+3).

It's also worth noting that Democrats lead Republicans in this poll by 6 points in the generic Congressional contest. That lead widens to 10 points among battleground state voters, 17 points among independents and 33 points among moderates.

Kerry's campaign is poised to ramp up its advertising in these very same states. It will be interesting to see how their results compare with those of their Republican opponents.