Kerry may or may not be ahead in the race at the current time. Head-to-head RV polls, which I've argued are the most important polls to look at, tended to show Kerry ahead through the end of last week (April 9) when the last batch were conducted.

We'll probably have some new ones released this weekend and it will be interesting to see what they show. It's within the realm of possibility that Bush's press conference/speech this week will produce some kind of small rally effect. Or it may not.

Either way, the really significant political development in the recent period is the undercutting of support for Bush's war in Iraq and for his handling of the war on terror. Here are some findings from recent polls that show just how seriously his standing in this area--once his ticket to sure re-election--has eroded.

The latest Annenberg Election Survey includes this question: "Has the war in Iraq reduced the risk of terrorism against the United States or increased the risk of terrorism against the United States?" Very straightforward. By about 2:1 (57-29), the public says the Iraq war has increased the risk of terrorism against the US. Wow.

The poll also asks another very straightforward question: "All in all, do you think the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over, or not?". Note that there's no specific mention in this question of the war's costs--casualties, money, etc.--which has tended to produce negative responses for quite a while (e.g., the CBS News question). But, even with no mention of costs, this question still returns a negative response: 51-43 saying the Iraq situation wasn't worth going to war about. That could represent some kind of a turning point in public evaluations of the Iraq war.

Another noteworthy recent finding comes from a recent Ipsos-AP poll. In that poll, Bush's approval rating on "handling the war on terrorism" clocks in at just 51 percent.

These new lows suggest just how difficult it may be for Bush to run--and win--as a "war president", as he likes to describe himself. And for further indications on this score, check out this excellent Los Angeles Times article on how reactions to the Iraq quagmire (if I may use that term) may sink his chances to carry Minnesota, very high on the Bush campaign's list of blue states they hope to pick off in November.