The latest state and national polls suggest that the Richard Clarke's revelations about the Bush administration's mishandling of the war on terror and their obsession with invading Iraq at the expense of prosecuting that war are damaging Bush and his re-election effort. And they have certainly stopped the pro-Bush momentum detectable in horse race questions in the second and third weeks of March.

A just-released Newsweek poll has Bush's approval rating on handling terrorism and homeland security down to 57 percent, a sharp decline from 70 percent two months ago. It is also significant that this rating is down in the 50's--Bush's ratings on terrorism, homeland security and related issues have been steadily in the 60's or above in this and other public polls for a very long time.

Bush's approval rating on Iraq is now 44 percent, with 50 percent disapproval (up from 39 percent disapproval at the end of last year). And a plurality of voters (42 percent) say they'll be less likely to vote for Bush because of his handling of postwar Iraq, rather than more likely (34 percent).

Bush's overall approval rating in the poll is 49 percent and his ratings on specific domestic issues are uniformly worse. His approval rating on education is 47 percent and his rating on tax policies is only 43 percent (49 percent disapprove). Worse than that, 54 percent and 58 percent, respectively, disapprove of his handling of the economy and of Medicare.

And check this out: his approval rating on handling "jobs and foreign competition" is a stunningly dismal 28 percent, with 60 percent disapproval (!).

Currently, Kerry leads Bush by one point (48-47) in this poll, slightly up from a tie one week ago. And Bush's re-elect number has declined slightly, from 46 percent to 45 percent.

Other national polls also suggest Bush's slippage in presidential trial heats. The Rasmussen Reports national tracking poll found a 47-43 Bush advantage over Kerry on March 19 turning into a 48-44 Kerry advantage over Bush by March 25 (though note that Kerry's lead in that poll has declined in the last couple of days). And the latest Fox News poll, conducted March 23-24 has the Bush-Kerry race tied up 44-44. Since the Fox News polls tend to be notoriously pro-Bush (Bush typically fares about 5 points better in Fox polls than in Gallup polls), that suggests a more reliable poll like Gallup would have showed a significant Kerry lead on those survey dates. Note also that this Fox poll has Kerry-Edwards 5 points ahead of Bush-Cheney (48-43), a race they had dead-even in early March.

Turning to state polls, there is also some positive news for Kerry. The Hotline's round-up of state polls finds Kerry leading in states with 229 EVs and Bush leading in states with 101 EVs, for a 128 EV lead for Kerry. Notable recent results include a 10 point lead for Kerry in Iowa (51-41), a 3 point lead for Kerry in Minnesota (47-44) and a 3 point lead for Kerry in Wisconsin (46-43, even with Nader included, so Kerry's "true" lead is probably larger).

And here's a big one: The University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll has Kerry ahead 46-44 in Ohio, even with Nader included in the matchup. Kerry's ahead by 13 points among independents, 16 points among moderates and by 34 points among young voters. Other data from the poll show that Bush has negative favorability ratings among all these groups: 33 percent favorable/52 percent unfavorable among independents; 46/51 among moderates; and 30/62 among young voters. Note also that Ohio Polls earlier this year had Bush's approval rating on the economy at 40 percent, with 58 percent disapproval and also found that the economy was far and away the most important issue for Ohio voters.

Other interesting red state news: Bush is up by 7 points in Missouri (49-42), but is only tied with Kerry in West Virginia (46-46), even with Nader in the race. And here's a very intriguing one: Bush is only leading Kerry by 4 points in Colorado, even in a poll conducted by a Republican pollster (McLaughlin & Associates) and even with Nader included!

A fella can dream, can't he?