Newsweek has a story on their website headlined "Ralph Rocks the Vote", based on their most recent Ipsos "Genext" poll of young voters. The story dwells on how Nader draws 12 percent among young voters in their poll--double what Nader is drawing among all registered voters in other Ipsos polls--and what good news this is for Bush.

Buried in the story (and in the full survey data) is other information that suggests the real story is how anti-Bush young voters are and what poor shape the president is still in with these voters.

Consider the following. By almost 20 points, young voters think the country is off on the wrong track (58 percent), rather than going in the right direction. And three-quarters believe the unemployment situation will not improve in the next six months, either staying the same (47 percent) or actually increasing (28 percent).

Bush's approval rating among young voters is now only 44 percent, with 54 percent disapproval, having dropped steadily among this group since early January of this year. His approval rating on the economy is now 46 percent, his approval rating on "domestic issues like health care, education, the environment and energy is 43 percent and even his rating on "foreign policy issues and the war on terrorism" is down to 50 percent.

His hard re-elect--"definitely vote to re-elect"--is an anemic 32 percent, 14 points lower than the 46 percent who say they will "definitely vote for someone else" (another 20 percent say they would “consider voting for someone else). And young voters also say they favor Democrats in this year's Congressional election by a strong 12 point margin (51-39).

OK. What about that Kerry-Bush-Nader horse race among young voters that's allegedly such good news for Bush? Yes, it's true that Nader draws 12 percent in this matchup. But it's also true that Kerry leads Bush by 9 points, 47-38 in the same matchup. In other words, even in a period where Bush has been making good headway in horse race matchups, and even with Nader in the mix and drawing a preposterously high 12 percent, Kerry still has a substantial lead over Bush among young voters.

In my view, that doesn't qualify as good news for Bush.

And let me rant and rave a little, if I may, about the way Nader's so-called candidacy is being handled by the media and polling organizations. I'll say it straight-out: I don't think this man's name should be included in any horse race questions, particularly on national polls. It is highly probable Nader's candidacy will amount to very little and, therefore, including him in Bush-Kerry matchups, where inattentive voters can declare their "support", wildly inflates his importance and overstates Bush's strength vis a vis Kerry.

Why do I say it's highly probable Nader's candidacy will be a big nothing? Because it's likely he won't even be on the ballot in a lot of states. Because he has no party line to run on this time and practically no prominent supporters. And because in a close election, voters are going to remember 2000 and how it did make a difference who got elected and choose not to throw away their vote. All this is likely to drive down his vote far below what he received last time....and last time he received only 2.7 percent.

I've made this argument before. As has Mark Schmitt and others. As has Rasmussen Reports, who--God bless 'em--have decided not to put Nader in their horse race questions. Would that more polling organizations would follow their lead.

Let me strongly recommend, then, that you ignore the Bush-Kerry-Nader trial heats and concentrate on the Bush-Kerry matchups. That's where the real action is and where the real state of the race can be discerned.

Speaking of Rasmussen Reports, the latest release of their Bush-Kerry (no Nader!) tracking poll shows a sudden shift toward Kerry, so that he's now leading Bush, 47-44. It could be that the tide is turning back to Kerry with all the punishment the administration has been taking lately. Stay tuned.